Supply and demand figures will be released Wednesday May 11th at 730AM CST. I have no idea what the government might say, bullish or bearish.
I know we have just had a nice sell off, fueled by the general commoditiy cotraction lower we just sat through last week..
As of this writing, planting progress was just released about an hour ago. Corn was 40% planted, while the bulls were looking for 32% done. What’s the difference? We’ll be sharply lower tonight, I believe. Which may give longer term bulls a break to take advantage of to get long.
Look at a July or Sep call to get time on your side.
Back to the metals>>> Silver bounce up to 41.25 would be a nice place to flip from long to short.
In the gold, 1520 should be a target to flip from long to short as well.
Please note, I am currently flat. IE I have no long or short position. I have learned that if I have a trade which triples or quadruples equity in a matter of a week, to cover and sit tight. Very often such volatility can be a double edge sword. I don’t want to have a good trade be nullified by a mistake, especially if there is no reason or logic behind that position.
I’d be looking to initiate sales at the above levels.
I currently have no opinion on the crude oil. I know that the 100.00 level is a pivot, but, again, I have no real interest in giving away chunks of great profits after the melt down to the 94 level.
I am more inclined to sit back and wait for my trade.
Going to the Stock indexes, last week we got to within 90 points of a double in the Dow Cash at 12,920. I am still looking for that target to get hit. With the Dow pulling back to the 12,600 level, its not unreasonable to build a small long position here looking for that 12,920 level to sell into. My one caveat would be if we settled below 12,500. Then bail and look for a further break to buy. I’d like to buy a break to the 12,400 level. That is the old Feb and April high, which should translate in to support, from a purely technical stand point.
The broader S&P still looks friendly.
It completed its double from the panic 09 lows at 666 up to 1332 on Feb 16th. Interestingly, 2 days after completing that double, on Feb 18th a high of 1442 was met with a break down to 1341. Granted, that was fueled by the Japanese earth quake.
I can’t help to think that the fact the market had doubled led the shorts to be very comfortable pressing the break for those 100 points in the SP cash. We subsequently rebounded to our most recent 2-1/2 year high at 1372 on May 2nd, just one week ago last Monday.
I continue to think that the SP cash and cash Dow will continue to rally, climbing the wall of worry, dismay, despair and negativity which this country has suffered under for the last 4 years. 4 years ago, the bearishness was warranted, because all we had were bullish cheer leaders, skyrocketing real estate and reasonable gas prices. 2-1/2 years ago, when it looked like the lights might be shut off, again, that bearishness was warranted.
This market has climbed the wall of worry. It continues to do so. I won’t really get queasy until I see CNBC bulls out in full force, bringing back the DOW 30,000 guys to talk on their “power lunch”. Then I’ll know to run for the hills.
That is all
CER
