First things first.
Gold: the 1450 target was reached. I exited a small long position, flipped and am now short. I am looking for a pull back down to 1428 and then 1418.
If, however, we rotate up to to a new high, I will be stopped out with a small loss.
Dow cash traded up to 12,438 today for a high. Dow Futures have yet to trade above 12,377. The old high on Feb 18th in the futures was 12,379. I am being patient with my short position. However, if we have a sharp up move, I will be stopped out, and losses will be taken.
For Crude, June futures, I would be inclined to sit tight. We have spiked 7 bucks in 6 trading days. That seems ridiculous to me, but then again, no one ever got a medal stepping in front of a freight train.
We are in interesting territory. The number everyone is looking at is the 08 high at 142.77.
Far be it from me to say we can’t go there. We are already at 4.00 gas in Chicago. 5.00 sometime this Summer seems a given.
I would use breaks as an opportunity to buy cheap calls.
On the monthly charts, 109.70 in CL K should be sold. Its a 62% retracement of the larger move which topped out in July 07 at 142.91 and melted down to 55.81 in Feb 09. 109.70 is a 62% retracement of that move and should be sold.
Corn is the most volatile commodity around. We have seen a 1.05 rally from last Wednedsay’s low to today’s high. My gut tells me we are closer to the top than the bottom. However, as with every bubble, the eventual top could very well be a surprise to us all. Corn now is acting as if we won’t have a crop this year, and the crop has yet to be planted. It seems like a rally to be sold, especially after the move we have had in the past week.
That being said, sell it at your own risk. You’d better be disciplined. This is a market that if you are a weak short, you will be discovered and liquidated.
Successfully trading these commodity markets requires Imagination and Discipline. That is all.
CER
