The La Nina pattern continues to drift towards neutral conditions, but the transition is slow.  Pacific equatorial SSTs cold anomalies have dissipated further since last month’s report, and colder water is now present in the North Atlantic.  However, the Southern Oscillation Index finished April with another month strongly in positive territory, and the leading edge of the subsurface mass of warm water is just east of 180º.  Most seasonal models are projecting a neutral Nino phase by the JJA period, but it should be stressed that this is not a classic La Nina pattern, and some effects will still linger. 

Our biggest weather concern in the US at the moment is on the corn side.  A cold and wet start to planting in the US has put planting pace well behind last year.  The week ending May 15th saw some significant planting progress, narrowing the gap that has been present since the season started.  But even though the planting pace has picked up, the crop is still delayed (21% of corn emerged vs. 53% last year in the 18 major growing states).  We may start to see a shift in acres from corn to beans.  This coupled with sustained demand we feel will place upside risk to costs on the feed side, which we feel will continue to rise through the end of 2011.