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The positive technical action and bullish influences from outside markets has helped support the recent run higher and confirmation that the US consumer is spending more helped drive the market higher yesterday. The Texas crop is still a bit behind a normal schedule and a below normal reading for temperatures on the 6-10 day outlook may also provide some underlying support. The wet forecast for the south with bolls opening is also seen as a positive price development for the cotton market. In addition, key cotton areas in China are seeing harvest delays due to too much rain and this could also be seen as supportive. December cotton closed sharply higher on the session yesterday and has now closed higher in 12 of the past 13 trading sessions. The market pushed to the highest level since August 14th and December cotton closed above 63.00 after a low of 57.00 on August 27th. Strong gains for the stock market to a new high for the year, weakness in the US dollar and news from the Fed Chairman that the recession may be over helped support. In addition, retail sales in August jumped 2.7%, the biggest increase in more than 3 years and clothing sales were up 2.4%. This shows a more confident consumer and traders see clothing and textile supply as relatively tight so positive demand news could be seen as a spark for better cotton consumption news ahead.
TODAY’S GUIDANCE: Cotton continues to follow the economic news and the stock market and with a few weather issues, buyers are likely to remain active. We are somewhat concerned with the overbought condition of the market but outside forces look supportive for today. Support for December cotton comes in at 62.24 with 65.47 and 67.65 as next upside resistance and targets.
