Highlights based on trading on Tuesday, May 29, 2012:
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above its highs of the previous 7 months and remains systematically bullish.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,332.42) rose 14.60 points or 1.11% on Tuesday. SPX lost downside momentum since making a low at 1,291.98 on 5/18/12. Counter-trend bounces are normal, but global stock markets are far from turning bullish.
NYSE volume rose 20% on Tuesday, reflecting the return of traders from a long 3-day holiday weekend. Volume remains well below average, however. Volume patterns have been weak, with a tendency toward lower volume on up days and higher volume on down days, indicating the dominance of selling pressure over buying pressure.
The following ETFs, ranked by Relative Strength, with the weakest at the bottom of the list, closed below their closing price lows of the previous 4 months:
Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
Commodity Tracking, DBC
Spain Index, EWP
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.
But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 120.60, 117.44, 115.69, 114.82, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 125.03.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 105.85, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance none.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 5/17/12. Systematically, JNK/LQD remains neutral: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, but the 50-day SMA has been modestly above the 200-day SMA every day since 4/16/12. The 50-200 SMA spread has been narrowing,, however, and a bearish crossover in days and weeks ahead appears probable, based on current trends.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned down after 3/19/12 and fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 5/17/12. Systematically, TIP/IEF remains neutral: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been above the 200-day SMA every day since 3/14/12.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 5/29/12. UUP remains systematically bullish: above its 50-day SMA, above its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA. Support 22.39, 22.14, 21.89, 21.74, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.86, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, 28.97.
CRB Commodity Price Index fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 5/29/12, for another a bearish trend confirmation. Systematically, CRB remains bearish: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/18/11.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 20 months on 5/23/12. Systematically, DBA remains bearish, below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA consistently below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell further below its lows of the previous 7 months on 5/23/12. USO still looks bearish on the chart. Systematically, USO remains neutral: below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, but the 50-day SMA has remained above the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 1/3/12. Support 33.66, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.19, 36.97, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/16/12. Systematically, GLD turned bearish on 4/17/12, when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. Support: 148.27, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 155.57, 162.18, 163.20, 164.89, 166.57, 174.00, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose modestly above its 50-day SMA on 5/23/12, turning systematically neutral. GDX/GLD remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11. Absolute price remains systematically bearish.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/16/12. Systematically, SLV remains bearish: below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. Support 25.65 and 24.44. Resistance: 28.60, 30.52, 31.64, 32.34, 33.44, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/16/12, reconfirming a downtrend for the medium term. Systematically, SLV/GLD remains bearish below its 50-day SMA, below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 5/23/12. JJC fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/3/12 and fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/2/12. JJC remains far below its 2011 high at 61.69 and has underperformed the stock market since JJC peaked at 51.41 on 2/9/12. Given that “Dr. Copper” is one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, this weakness may be suggesting rising doubts about prospects going forward.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.35% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.36% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
13.16% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
0.83% , KLD , LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
3.31% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.90% , IGN , Networking, IGN
2.23% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
2.05% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.58% , IGV , Software, IGV
1.81% , VIAB.O , VIACOM STK B
4.73% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
4.44% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
0.99% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
1.55% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
4.86% , MBI , MBIA
1.26% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
2.01% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
1.36% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
4.31% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
2.11% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
3.99% , FXI , China 25 iS, FXI
1.47% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
4.18% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
1.70% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
4.08% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
4.24% , EWT , Taiwan Index, EWT
1.00% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
5.48% , PWER , POWER ONE
1.15% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
2.65% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
2.71% , EWY , South Korea Index, EWY
2.27% , PKI , PERKINELMER
2.83% , UTX , UNITED TECH
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.89% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
-1.32% , TEVA , Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited
-1.11% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-0.46% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.23% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-2.59% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-1.88% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.55% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-1.33% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-2.19% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-1.09% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.29% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-0.72% , LSI , LSI LOGIC
-1.06% , ABC , AMERISOURCEBERGN
-1.31% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-0.81% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
-0.22% , MHP , MCGRAW HILL
-0.17% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.45% , TAP , ADOLPH COORS STK B, TAP
-0.34% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.42% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.08% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.17% , BDX , BECTON DICKINSON
-0.41% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
-0.05% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.16% , XRAY , DENTSPLY International Inc
-0.30% , SUN , SUNOCO
-0.31% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.16% , MCD , MCDONALDS
-0.49% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
-0.09% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
-0.29% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.08% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
4.24% Taiwan Index, EWT
3.99% China 25 iS, FXI
3.32% Russia MV, RSX
3.31% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
3.06% Australia Index, EWA
2.99% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
2.85% Mexico Index, EWW
2.83% Emerging Markets, EEM
2.77% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
2.71% South Korea Index, EWY
2.66% Hong Kong Index, EWH
2.59% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
2.46% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
2.37% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
2.28% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
2.23% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
2.22% Sweden Index, EWD
2.14% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
2.14% Indonesia MV, IDX
2.12% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.05% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.98% Singapore Index, EWS
1.91% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.90% Networking, IGN
1.81% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.74% Materials SPDR, XLB
1.71% South Africa Index, EZA
1.70% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.67% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.61% Germany Index, EWG
1.61% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.57% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.57% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.55% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
1.55% France Index, EWQ
1.55% REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.54% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.54% Malaysia Index, EWM
1.47% Latin Am 40, ILF
1.46% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.45% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
1.44% Energy DJ, IYE
1.43% Financial SPDR, XLF
1.43% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
1.42% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.42% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.40% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.40% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.39% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.39% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.39% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.39% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.37% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.37% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
1.35% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
1.35% Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.35% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.34% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.34% Technology DJ US, IYW
1.33% Canada Index, EWC
1.33% Technology SPDR, XLK
1.32% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
1.31% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.31% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.28% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
1.27% Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.27% MidCap Russell, IWR
1.27% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.27% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.27% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.27% EAFE Index, EFA
1.27% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
1.25% Japan Index, EWJ
1.24% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
1.22% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.21% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.21% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.20% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
1.20% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
1.19% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.19% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.19% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
1.18% Energy Global, IXC
1.18% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.18% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.17% Belgium Index, EWK
1.14% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
1.13% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.11% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
1.10% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
1.09% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
1.08% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
1.06% India PS, PIN
1.04% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.01% Water Resources, PHO
1.00% Brazil Index, EWZ
1.00% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.96% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.95% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.92% European VIPERs, VGK
0.91% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.89% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.87% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.85% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.83% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.80% Global 100, IOO
0.78% Dividend International, PID
0.78% Austria Index, EWO
0.76% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.76% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.75% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.74% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.72% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.71% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.52% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.51% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.47% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.33% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.31% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.22% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.22% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.15% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.04% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.03% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.01% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.00% Italy Index, EWI
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.03% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.05% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.08% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.17% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.29% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.31% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.34% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.42% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.46% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.09% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.29% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-1.88% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-3.89% Spain Index, EWP
