So, I left for Madrid in my rental car, and the drive over from the coast was quite lovely, a scenic change from sand and water. In fact, if any of you have been to southern Utah or Arizona, two beautiful states in the U.S., you will relate when I say a good portion of the topography on the drive over resembled the wind-swept, water-eroded, red-based landscape of that arid region in the U.S. As well, another huge portion resembled the “Big Valley” of the Central California. Yes, quite a change from the water and sand I have been living with for some three weeks now.

Another large and quite never-wracking difference between my small town of Sant Antoni and Madrid is the sheer number of people and the massive amounts of cars in the streets. All I can say is that I am plenty happy to be writing this column from the safety of my fifth-floor hotel room. It is as if the cars emit some kind of crazy as soon as the driver turns on the key. I have never seen any driving this like anywhere, even in Rome, where some say that city has the craziest drivers in the world. No sir! Those maniacal drivers have nothing over these zip in and zip out drivers.

So, given my recent experience with the driving in Madrid, you will understand if I am bit ornery today. To release some of that, I will target the predilection of economists to be wrong in their estimations of future economic activity. Yes, we need them to a degree in order to help in finding the trend or finding the future general flow of the market, but not for the reason you think. We should accept that their estimates are generally wrong because, after all, they are mostly guessing, but that does not mean we cannot use them for our own guessing process. If you understand that economists tend to be conservative in their estimations, then you can better understand the potential direction. For example,

The Institute for Supply Management said its services index rose to 57.3 in February last month from 56.8 in January, in sharp contrast to economists’ expectations for a drop to 56.1.

You see what I am saying here. You can bet on the high side if they are going low, and you can bet on the low side, if they are going high. Okay, so it is not a tested theory, but if nothing else take this away from what I said – economists are usually wrong when estimating future economic activity. Now, as to the good news in the actual ISM number …

It was the index’s highest level since February 2011. The services sector accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. Separate data showed a decline in new orders for factory goods was not as steep as expected in January, while December’s gain was revised higher.

Just in case you thought I lost my zeal for the positive after driving in Madrid and castigating economists and their abilities, let me reassure you I have not. I still believe the world will end up in the correct position sooner rather than later, and the symbol I will use for that is Greece. That tortured country is stepping inch by inch through a horrible process, but it is making progress. Slowly, Greece, and the rest of us, will put the debt issues away and move on to greener pastures, a rebounding market based on a turn in confidence and a desire to make some real money.

The steering committee of creditors, which includes 12 major investors in Greek bonds and was involved in drawing up last month’s landmark deal, said it would accept the bond swap offer.

Trade in the day – Invest in your life …

Trader Ed