Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis April 16, 2012, Forecast

By FXEmpire.com

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil has been falling most of the day. Trading at 102.97 losing momentum since the Asian session when China released its economic data.

China’s first-quarter economic growth cools to its slowest pace in 11 quarters due to weak export growth and sluggish construction, though analysts view the figures as pointing to a gradual slowing rather than a replay of the 2008 sharp drop in activity.

Slowing Chinese growth will raise expectations of a move to more aggressive stimulus policy. In fact, a stealth stimulus is already underway. Growth in China’s gross domestic product in the first quarter slowed to 8.1% compared to a year ago, down markedly from 8.9%

Real estate investment in China rose 23.5% in the January to March period from a year earlier, according to data released Friday by the National Bureau of Statistics. New construction in terms of floor area increase 0.3% to 399.5 million square feet.

The Chinese economy is stabilizing despite the fact that gross domestic product growth in the first quarter was below many people’s expectations The conditions are favorable for keeping China’s inflation within the target of around 4% this year, Sheng Laiyun, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics commented.

In the US more pressure was put on crude with some disappointing data.

The cost of living rose again in March even as the price of gasoline leveled off, the U.S. government reported Friday.

The consumer price index climbed 0.3% last month as the cost of most goods and services rose, the Labor Department said. The increase outstripped the rise in wages, so inflation-adjusted earnings for the average American worker fell 0.1% last month.

Economists expected a 0.2% increase in the cost of living.

Consumer sentiment defies economists’ expectations in early April, easing on worries about current conditions, according to the University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters.

Crude should end up trading in the 100.00 range as forecast since last week.

Economic Reports for April 13, 2012 actual v. forecast

JPY	Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
CNY	Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY)	20.9%	20.8%	21.5%
CNY	Chinese GDP (YoY)	8.1%	8.3%	8.9%
CNY	Chinese Industrial Production (YoY)	11.9%	11.5%	11.4%
CNY	Chinese Retail Sales (YoY)	15.2%	15.0%	14.7%
EUR	German CPI (MoM)	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
EUR	Finnish CPI (YoY)	2.90%	3.10%
GBP	PPI Input (MoM)	1.9%	1.2%	2.5%
USD	Core CPI (MoM)	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
USD	CPI (MoM)	0.3%	0.3%	0.4%

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