By FXEmpire.com
Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis April 23, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:
Crude Oil rebounded mid day on Friday to skyrocket up to 104.25 after late day release of German economic data.
The Munich-based Ifo Institute’s German business confidence index rose to 109.9 in April from a reading of 109.8 in March, data showed Friday. Economists had forecast a decline to 109.5.
Crude did an about face after declining as more Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits and sales of previously owned homes fell, adding to concern that the U.S. recovery is stalling. Futures dropped 0.4 percent after the Labor Department said jobless claims decreased by 2,000 to 386,000 last week. The median forecast of 47 economists called for 370,000.
Purchases fell 2.6 percent to a 4.48 million annual rate from 4.6 million in February.
Even news that Iraq will start crude oil loading from a new floating terminal in Basra Friday, the second the country has started operating within a month and a half, which will boost export capacity by another 800,000 to 900,000 barrels a day, a senior Iraqi oil official said did not reduce today’s climb
Economic Data for April 20, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
JPY |
Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) |
0.0% |
0.8% |
-0.6% |
|
AUD |
Import Price Index (QoQ) |
-1.2% |
-1.0% |
2.5% |
|
EUR |
German PPI (MoM) |
0.6% |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
EUR |
German PPI (YoY) |
3.3% |
3.1% |
3.2% |
|
EUR |
German Ifo Business Climate Index |
109.9 |
109.5 |
109.8 |
|
EUR |
German Current Assessment |
117.5 |
117.0 |
117.4 |
|
EUR |
German Business Expectations |
102.7 |
102.5 |
102.7 |
|
GBP |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
1.8% |
0.5% |
-0.8% |
|
GBP |
Retail Sales (YoY) |
3.3% |
1.4% |
1.0% |
|
Core CPI (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.4% |
||
|
CAD |
CPI (MoM) |
0.4% |
1.0% |
0.4% |
|
CAD |
Leading Indicators (MoM) |
0.4% |
1.0% |
0.7% |
|
CAD |
CPI (YoY) |
1.9% |
2.0% |
2.6% |
|
MXN |
Mexican Unemployment Rate |
4.6% |
4.9% |
5.3% |
Economic Events scheduled for April 23, 2012 that affect the European and American Markets
06:00:00 GBP Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY) -0.90%
The Nationwide Housing Prices shows the value of the houses prices in UK and indicate current movements in the housing market that is considered as a sensitive factor to the UK’s economy. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
06:00:00 GBP Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM) -1%
The Nationwide Housing Prices shows the value of the houses prices in UK and indicate current movements in the housing market that is considered as a sensitive factor to the UK’s economy. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
07:28:00 EUR Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing 48.4
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Markit economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in Germany. Normally, a result above 50 signals is bullish for the EUR, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.
07:28:00 EUR Purchasing Manager Index Services 52.1
The Services PMI released by the Markit Economics interviews German executives on the status of sales, employment, and their outlook. Because the performance of the German service sector is extremely consistent over time, services does not impact final GDP figures as much as the more volatile figure on the manufacturing sector. Any reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading under 50 shows contraction.
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