By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
Crude Oil added a few cents today to trade at 84.23 as traders took advantage of the weak US to grab hold of the commodity at low prices.
OPEC kept its production ceiling unchanged from prior level, i.e. 30 million barrels per day. As per OPEC monthly report production have climbed up above 31 million barrels in May, so output cut is expected from largest producer like Saudi Arabia to keep production level as decided. Thus, hope from Saudi Arabia to cut its supply in order to stem the slipping oil prices may continue to support oil prices. Other than this, National Hurricane Center has issued advisory on tropical storm Carlotta in eastern pacific, which may create supply disturbance.
Concern of supply disturbance may keep on oil on higher side. China is also planning to increase its strategic petroleum reserve, where import has been increased by more than 10 percent in the month of May. This is the indication of upcoming higher demand by world’s second largest oil consuming nation which is a positive factor for oil prices. From economic front, turmoil of European debt crisis is still weighing on market, however monetary easing is expected by Fed.
Thus, expectation of monetary easing to strengthen US economy may support oil prices. However, there may be little pressure during European session as Moody has already downgraded six Dutch banks on yesterday. Ahead of Greece election in the weekend may keep some pressure on financial market, so on oil prices. However, net TIC flows in US are likely to climb up which may again add some positive point on oil prices.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data June 15, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun. 15 |
JPY |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.10% |
0.10% |
0.10% |
|
GBP |
Trade Balance |
-10.1B |
-8.5B |
-8.7B |
|
|
EUR |
Employment Change (QoQ) |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
-0.3% |
|
|
Manufacturing Sales (MoM) |
-0.80% |
1.00% |
1.90% |
||
|
USD |
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index |
2.3 |
13.0 |
17.1 |
WEEKLY
- This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule) - Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule) - Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun 18 |
18th-22nd |
GBP |
45 |
44 |
|
|
Day 1 |
ALL |
||||
|
Jun 19 |
8:30 |
GBP |
3.0% |
||
|
9:00 |
EUR |
-2.4 |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.72M |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.72M |
|||
|
Day 2 |
ALL |
||||
|
Jun 20 |
6:00 |
EUR |
0.2% |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
-13.7K |
|||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
0-0-9 |
0-0-9 |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
8.2% |
|||
|
9:00 |
CHF |
-4.0 |
|||
|
14:30 |
USD |
-0.2M |
|||
|
16:30 |
USD |
||||
|
16:30 |
USD |
|
|
||
|
18:00 |
USD |
||||
|
18:15 |
USD |
||||
|
Jun 21 |
6:00 |
CHF |
1.33B |
||
|
7:00 |
EUR |
44.7 |
|||
|
7:00 |
EUR |
45.1 |
|||
|
7:15 |
CHF |
7.9% |
|||
|
7:30 |
EUR |
45.2 |
|||
|
7:30 |
EUR |
51.8 |
|||
|
8:00 |
EUR |
9.1B |
|||
|
8:00 |
EUR |
45.1 |
|||
|
8:00 |
EUR |
46.7 |
|||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
-2.3% |
|||
|
10:00 |
GBP |
-17 |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
386K |
|||
|
13:00 |
USD |
54.0 |
|||
|
14:00 |
USD |
4.62M |
|||
|
14:00 |
USD |
-5.8 |
|||
|
Jun 22 |
8:00 |
EUR |
106.9 |
||
|
All Day |
EUR |
||||
|
13:00 |
EUR |
-11.2 |
Click here for updated Crude Oil News.
Originally posted here
