By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
Crude Oil broke below the 80.00 level trading as low at 79.90, it is currently at 80.06. Nymex crude oil prices declined around 1.6 percent today on the back of unexpected rise in US crude oil inventories coupled with escalating European debt crisis. Additionally, a stronger DX also acted as a negative factor for the commodity.
With the FOMC lowering the US growth forecast and the Chinese HSBC PMI showing a continued slowdown in Asia, the demand for crude has been reduced.
The overall market sentiments turned sour after the US Federal Reserve stopped short of introducing any further aggressive economic stimulus measures as widely anticipated and revised down the economic growth estimates to 1.9-2.4 per cent from 2.4-2.9 per cent. However, the US central bank decided to go ahead with the ‘Operation Twist’. Worries over the global economic growth triggered sell off in commodities and equities. Spot gold declined for the third consecutive day. However, lower level buying and safe haven appeal provided cushion to falling prices.
Meanwhile, silver was down around one per cent. Disappointment over the Fed staying back from providing additional stimulus measures amid worries over euro zone debt crisis dragged down base metals and crude oil too. Weak Chinese manufacturing PMI data added further pressure over the market. Base metals in LME were down around one per cent. Tracking global market, base metal complex in MCX declined, though steep slides were restricted by weak rupee. Crude oil in Nymex was hovering near eight month low while Brent crude oil hit 18-month low. Surprise build in crude oil inventories and gloomy economic outlook drove prices south.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data Releases for June 21, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun. 21 |
CNY |
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI |
48.10 |
48.40 |
|
|
EUR |
French Manufacturing PMI |
45.3 |
44.5 |
44.7 |
|
|
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI |
44.7 |
45.2 |
45.2 |
|
|
EUR |
Manufacturing PMI |
44.8 |
44.9 |
45.1 |
|
|
GBP |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
1.4% |
1.2% |
-2.4% |
|
|
GBP |
Retail Sales (YoY) |
2.4% |
2.0% |
-1.1% |
|
|
GBP |
CBI Industrial Trends Orders |
-11 |
-20 |
-17 |
|
|
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.3% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
||
|
CAD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.5% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
387K |
380K |
389K |
|
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3299K |
3275K |
3299K |
WEEKLY
- This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule) - Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule) - Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun 22 |
8:00 |
EUR |
106.9 |
||
|
All Day |
EUR |
||||
|
13:00 |
EUR |
-11.2 |
Upcoming Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Jun 22 15:30 Italy
Jun 25 09:10 Norway
Jun 25 09:30 Germany
Jun 25 10:00 Belgium
Jun 25 15:30 Italy
Jun 26 00:30 Japan
Click here a current Crude Oil Chart.
Originally posted here
