By FXEmpire.com
Analysis and Recommendations:
Crude Oil continues to fall, trading at 83.08 down 3.48 in today’s session.
Shrinking manufacturing activities in the major economies amidst feeble financial situation in the Euro Zone continue to play havoc on the financial markets. Commodities as well as equities were seen to be under the stranglehold of bears and continued to move south ahead of the crucial economic releases from the US. Euro was hovering near the two year low levels. Contraction in manufacturing activity in Euro Zone and China intensified concerns over the global economic growth thereby, heightening worries over the demand for base metals. Euro Zone manufacturing PIM hit its lowest since June 2009 while, official Chinese manufacturing PMI retreated more than expected to its lowest since last December. LME copper made a fresh low this year, falling below $7400 a tone and was on its course to post losses for the fifth straight week. Crude oil continued to glide down. Brent crude oil sunk below $100 a barrel, for the first time since October 2011 while in Nymex prices slipped below $84 a barrel. Weak economic indicators from the major economies in midst of persisting Euro debt crisis and high crude oil inventories heightened worries over the demand for the commodity.
Today’s releases were almost all negative; the US created only 69,000 jobs, when they must create 200,000 jobs just to stay even. Unemployment climbed to 8.2%.
ISM manufacturing took a hit reporting in at 53.5 when economists had forecast 53.9. Core PCE also reported under forecast. This compounded with the lackluster reports of the past 10 days investors turned to gold as the words monetary easing, and QE were heard louder and louder. Markets are now hedging that the Feds will need to take aggressive action quickly to get the US recovery back on track. The Obama Administration is running out of time to lock in the election. They need to see things turned around with several months of supporting data before we get close to the fall elections.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data for June 1, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun. 01 |
KRW |
South Korean CPI (YoY) |
2.5% |
2.5% |
2.5% |
|
JPY |
Capital Spending |
3.30% |
1.30% |
7.60% |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese Manufacturing PMI |
50.40 |
52.20 |
53.30 |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese HSBC Man PMI |
48.40 |
48.70 |
||
|
CHF |
Retail Sales (YoY) |
0.1% |
2.0% |
4.7% |
|
|
CHF |
SVME PMI |
45.4 |
46.4 |
46.9 |
|
|
EUR |
French Manufacturing PMI |
44.7 |
44.4 |
44.4 |
|
|
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI |
45.2 |
45.0 |
45.0 |
|
|
EUR |
Manufacturing PMI |
45.1 |
45.0 |
45.0 |
|
|
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI |
45.9 |
49.7 |
50.2 |
|
|
EUR |
Unemployment Rate |
11.0% |
11.0% |
11.0% |
|
|
USD |
Average Hourly Earnings |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
USD |
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
GDP (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.3% |
-0.2% |
||
|
USD |
Nonfarm Payrolls |
69K |
150K |
77K |
|
|
USD |
Personal Spending (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
|
|
USD |
Unemployment Rate |
8.2% |
8.1% |
8.1% |
|
|
USD |
Average Weekly Hours |
34.4 |
34.5 |
34.5 |
|
|
USD |
Private Nonfarm Payrolls |
82K |
160K |
87K |
|
|
USD |
ISM Manufacturing Index |
53.5 |
53.9 |
54.8 |
WEEKLY
- This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule) - Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule) - Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)
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Originally posted here
