Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis June 5, 2012, Forecast

By FXEmpire.com

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is down 0.015 trading at 83.11. Crude fell to the lowest level in almost eight months as worsening employment rates in the U.S. and the euro area signaled fuel demand may tumble.

Oil dropped as much as 4.9 percent after the Labor Department said on Friday that American employers added the fewest workers in a year in May. The euro region’s jobless rate reached a record high, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said. Brent dropped below $100 for the first time since October.

Crude futures for July delivery declined $3.70, or 4.3 percent, to $82.83 a barrel at 2:20 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange after falling to $82.29, the lowest intraday level since Oct. 7. Prices are down 25 percent from this year’s settlement high of $109.77 on Feb. 24.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data DATE, 2012 actual v. forecast (virtually no eco data in Europe or the US today)

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Jun. 04	JPY	Monetary Base (YoY)	2.4%	0.2%	-0.3%
AUD	MI Inflation Gauge (MoM)	0.0%	0.3%
AUD	Company Gross Profits (QoQ)	-4.0%	-2.0%	-6.5%
AUD	ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM)	-2.40%	-0.80%

WEEKLY

• This Week in Petroleum
  Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
• Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
  Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
• Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Forecast	Previous
Jun 5	9:00	EUR	Retail Sales m/m	0.3%
	10:00	EUR	German Factory Orders m/m	2.2%
	14:00	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI	53.5
Jun 6	6th-8th	GBP	Halifax HPI m/m
	8:30	GBP	Construction PMI	55.8
	10:00	EUR	German Industrial Production m/m	2.8%
	11:45	EUR	Minimum Bid Rate	1.00%	1.00%
	12:30	EUR	ECB Press Conference
	12:30	USD	Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q	-0.5%
	14:30	USD	Crude Oil Inventories
	18:00	USD	Beige Book
	23:01	GBP	BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y	-3.3%
Jun 7	7:00	CHF	Foreign Currency Reserves	235.6B
	7:15	CHF	CPI m/m	0.1%
	8:30	GBP	Services PMI	53.3
	TBD	EUR	French 10-y Bond Auction
	11:00	GBP	Asset Purchase Facility	325B
	11:00	GBP	Official Bank Rate	0.50%	0.50%
	TBD	GBP	MPC Rate Statement
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Claims	383K
	14:00	USD	Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
Jun 8	8:30	GBP	PPI Input m/m	-1.5%
	8:30	GBP	Consumer Inflation Expectations	3.5%
	TBD	GBP	10-y Bond Auction
	12:30	USD	Trade Balance	-51.8B
	14:00	USD	Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

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Originally posted here