Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis March 29, 2012, Forecast

By FXEmpire.com

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is trading at 105.38 down -1.95. The black gold suffered two direct hits today. Reports surfaced that France was considering releasing their oil reserves as more rumors echoed the same story in the US and the UK. Although these rumors were not enough all week to drive the price down, the likelihood began to outweigh investors greed. Compounded by a surprise inventory report, that showed an inventories increase more than double the size of analyst expectations.

The Energy Information Administration reported an increase of 7.1 million barrels of crude in the week ended March 23. That surpassed expectations for an increase of about 2.75 million barrels, according to analysts polled by Platts.

The EIA also said gasoline supplies declined 3.5 million barrels on the week, while stockpiles of distillates, which include heating oil, were down 700,000 barrels.

The analysts surveyed by Platts expected gasoline supplies to decline 1.5 million barrels, and distillates inventories to be down 1 million barrels.

French Energy Minister Eric Besson told reporters in Paris that the United States has asked for a coordinated move between America, Britain and France for an emergency release of oil stocks, according to the Financial Times. He said France is “favorable” to the suggestion.

Economic Data March 28, 2012 actual v. forecast

EUR	French GDP (QoQ)	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
EUR	M3 Money Supply (YoY)	2.8%	2.5%	2.5%
EUR	Private Loans (YoY)	0.7%	1.3%	1.1%
EUR	Italian Business Confidence	92.1	91.7	91.7
GBP	Business Investment (QoQ)	-3.3%	-5.4%	-5.6%
GBP	Current Account	-8.5B	-8.4B	-10.5B
GBP	GDP (QoQ)	-0.3%	-0.2%	-0.2%
EUR	Italian 6-Month BOT Auction	1.12%	1.20%
USD	MBA Mortgage Applications	-2.7%	-7.4%
EUR	German CPI (MoM)	0.3%	0.3%	0.7%
USD	Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	1.6%	1.5%	-3.0%
USD	Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	2.2%	3.0%	-3.6%
USD	Crude Oil Inventories	7.1M	2.5M	-1.2M
USD	Gasoline Inventories	-3.5M	-1.7M	-1.2M

Economic Reports for March 29, 2012 Europe and Americas

08:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate 6.8% 6.8%

The German unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the reported month.

08:55 EUR German Unemployment Change -10K 0K

German Unemployment Change measures the change in the number of unemployed people during the previous month.

13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 350K 348K

13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3365K 3352K

Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the earliest U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.

13:30 USD GDP Price Index (QoQ) 0.9% 0.9%

The GDP Price Index measures the annualized change in the price of all goods and services included in gross domestic product. It is the broadest inflationary indicator.

13:30 USD GDP (QoQ) 3.0% 3.0%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

17:45 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 – January 2014) is to speak. As head of the Fed, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the U.S. dollar’s value than any other person. Traders closely watch his speeches as they are often used to drop hints regarding future monetary policy.

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Mar 29 00:30 Japan Auctions 2Y JGBs

Mar 29 09:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction

Mar 29 17:00 US Usd 29.0bn 7Y Notes

Mar 30 14:30 UK Publication of the DMO Q2 Gilt operations calendar

Mar 31 n/a Spain IGCP deadline for Q2 T-bill issuance programme

Apr 03 09:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 6M T-bills

Apr 03 09:30 UK Conventional Gilt Auction

Apr 04 08:30 Spain Bono auction

Apr 04 14:30 Sweden Details T-bill auction on Apr 11

Apr 05 08:50 France OAT auction

Apr 05 15:00 US Announces auctions

Apr 05 15:30 Italy Details BOT on Apr 11 & BTP/CCTeu on Apr 12

Originally posted here