By FXEmpire.com

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil continued to fall in today’s session but was able to move off the lows of today, trading earlier below 92.00/barrel. Crude is holding at 93.20.

A report from the American Petroleum Institute yesterday estimated today’s EIA inventory with over 6 million barrel of excess oil, fortunately today’s actual report released by the EIA showed an inventory build of 2.1 million barrels well under the API estimate, which was a relief to the markets.

The actual report stated “U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.0 million barrels per day during the week ending May 11, 302 thousand barrels per day above the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 88.3 percent of their operable capacity last week. U.S. crude oil imports averaged nearly 8.9 million barrels per day last week, down by 86 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged about 8.9 million barrels per day, 60 thousand barrels per day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 675 thousand barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 81 thousand barrels per day last week .U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.1 million barrels from the previous week. At 381.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.

Continued production by OPEC nations, lowered demand for industrial use and production and reduced demand from consumers, is creating a world oil glut.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data May 16, 2012 actual v. forecast

JPY

Tertiary Industry Activity Index

-0.6%

-0.3%

0.0%

AUD

Westpac Consumer Sentiment

0.80%

-1.60%

AUD

Wage Price Index (QoQ)

0.9%

0.8%

1.0%

GBP

Average Earnings Index +Bonus

0.6%

1.0%

1.1%

GBP

Claimant Count Change

-13.7K

5.0K

-5.4K

EUR

CPI (YoY)

2.6%

2.6%

2.6%

EUR

Core CPI (YoY)

1.6%

1.5%

1.6%

USD

Building Permits

0.715M

0.730M

0.769M

USD

Housing Starts

0.717M

0.680M

0.699M

CAD

Manufacturing Sales (MoM)

1.90%

1.00%

-0.20%

USD

Industrial Production

1.1%

0.6%

-0.6%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

May 17

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims

365K

367K

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims

3235K

3229K

15:00

USD

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

10.0

8.5


WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

Click here for further Crude Oil Forecast.

Originally posted here