Crude Oil Monthly Fundamental Forecast April 2012

Crude Oil Monthly Fundamental Forecast April 2012

Outlook and Recommendation

Crude Oil is trading at 103.25.

This month Crude Oil highs and lows are shown below.

Crude oil futures fell almost 4 percent settled at $103.02 for the month March 2012. Oil prices witnessed very range-bound sessions throughout the month trading in the range of $108-$105 after making a high of $110 in the starting of the month.

The mixed economic data and record supplies kept oil prices under pressured with the news of oil release from Strategic petroleum reserves from EU and US which dragged oil prices towards $103 in the end of the month March, 2012

Crude oil prices are expected to trade down witnessing correction on high inventory levels with the end of winter season as refiners will go for maintenance shut before the summer season accelerates.
US commercial crude oil inventories rose to 20 months high to 353.4 mb in the week ended March 23 creating huge pressure on prices. The recent oil discoveries in Shale assets have increased domestic supplies reducing oil imports of US. OECD industry stocks increased by 13.6 mb to 2614 mb in January 2012 with the forward demand cover of 57.8 days.

The ongoing geopolitical concerns on Iran and Western countries will keep the risk premium in oil prices limiting the downside.

April Major Economic Events

• This Week in Petroleum
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• Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
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• Weekly Petroleum Status Report
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• Heating Oil & Propane Update (-)
  Heating Oil, Propane Residential and Wholesale Price Data
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• Weekly Coal Production
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• Weekly NYMEX Coal Futures
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• Coal News & Markets
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• Natural Gas Weekly Update
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• Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
  Release Schedule: