By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: Crude Oil is considered the king of the commodities markets.The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the United States’ emergency oil stockpile, and it is the largest emergency petroleum supply in the world. The reserve stores about 570 million barrels of crude oil in underground salt caverns at four sites along the Gulf of Mexico. Any dipping into this reserve is going to be big news.
Brent Crude is traded in London as something called Futures contracts, which are priced in US Dollars. Now, all you traders brave enough to run your positions over a period of days or weeks, pay attention
Most commonly traded is the NYMEX where you find West Texas Crude. It is also traded in USD.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
Crude Oil climbed this week hitting a high of 105.00 and ending the week at 104.78. Watch out, Mr. Obama needs to bring the price of crude down below 100.00 to win re election. Crude oil, is the single most important factor holding back the US economy at present, lower energy costs would promote consumer confidence and also job creation.
|
Date |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
|
Apr 27, 2012 |
104.78 |
104.08 |
105.00 |
103.75 |
0.65% |
|
Apr 26, 2012 |
104.10 |
104.05 |
104.91 |
103.86 |
0.05% |
|
Apr 25, 2012 |
104.05 |
103.75 |
104.56 |
103.11 |
0.29% |
|
Apr 24, 2012 |
103.75 |
103.08 |
104.09 |
102.80 |
0.63% |
|
Apr 23, 2012 |
103.10 |
103.87 |
103.91 |
101.83 |
-0.73% |
Inventories are higher than expected and there is no reason for crude to be trading at this level.
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged just less than 14.5 million barrels per day during the week ending April 20, 23 thousand barrels per day above the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 84.7 percent of their operable capacity last week.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged about 8.8 million barrels per day last week; up by 48 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 8.9 million barrels per day, 235 thousand barrels per day above the same four-week period last year.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 4.0 million barrels from the previous week. At 373.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.2 million barrels last week and are in the upper limit of the average range.
Crude oil prices are one of the major obstacles for US recovery, and President Obama, is going to be forced to take drastic action to stimulate the economy before elections as proved by President Sarkozy in France.
Major Economic Events for the past week actual v. forecast
|
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.5% |
1.0% |
-0.8% |
|
|
USD |
New Home Sales |
328K |
320K |
353K |
|
GBP |
GDP (QoQ) |
-0.2% |
0.1% |
-0.3% |
|
GBP |
GDP (YoY) |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
USD |
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
-1.1% |
0.5% |
1.9% |
|
USD |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.25% |
0.25% |
0.25% |
|
NZD |
Interest Rate Decision |
2.50% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
388K |
375K |
389K |
|
USD |
GDP (QoQ) |
2.2% |
2.5% |
3.0% |
Historical:
High: 114.57
Low: 76.84
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
May 1 |
4:30am |
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI |
51.4 |
52.1 |
|
10:00am |
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
53.0 |
53.4 |
|
|
May 2 |
4:30am |
GBP |
Construction PMI |
54.2 |
56.7 |
|
8:15am |
USD |
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change |
179K |
209K |
|
|
May 3 |
4:30am |
GBP |
Services PMI |
54.6 |
55.3 |
|
7:45am |
EUR |
Minimum Bid Rate |
1.00% |
1.00% |
|
|
8:30am |
EUR |
ECB Press Conference |
|||
|
8:30am |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
382K |
388K |
|
|
10:00am |
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
55.5 |
56.0 |
|
|
May 4 |
8:30am |
USD |
Non-Farm Employment Change |
176K |
120K |
|
8:30am |
USD |
Unemployment Rate |
8.2% |
8.2% |
WEEKLY
- This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule) - Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule) - Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)
Originally posted here
