By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: Crude Oil is considered the king of the commodities markets.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the United States’ emergency oil stockpile, and it is the largest emergency petroleum supply in the world. The reserve stores about 570 million barrels of crude oil in underground salt caverns at four sites along the Gulf of Mexico. Any dipping into this reserve is going to be big news.
Brent Crude is traded in London as something called Futures contracts, which are priced in US Dollars. Now, all you traders brave enough to run your positions over a period of days or weeks, pay attention
Most commonly traded is the NYMEX where you find West Texas Crude. It is also traded in USD.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
Crude Oil declined on Friday, after two days of disappointing eco stats from China. Crude dipped to trade at 93.35. Crude had been supported by minor geopolitical tensions, the possibility of a supply disruption in the gulf region with two major storms brewing and a fire at a refinery in California. A larger than projected decrease in inventory also helped support price.
|
Date |
Open |
High |
Change % |
||
|
Aug 10, 2012 |
93.35 |
93.53 |
93.53 |
91.72 |
-0.19% |
|
Aug 09, 2012 |
93.53 |
93.31 |
94.20 |
93.08 |
0.23% |
|
Aug 08, 2012 |
93.32 |
93.30 |
94.70 |
92.83 |
0.03% |
|
Aug 07, 2012 |
93.29 |
91.89 |
94.40 |
91.78 |
1.53% |
|
Aug 06, 2012 |
91.88 |
91.25 |
92.32 |
90.64 |
0.68% |
What crude oil prices could not combat was the decrease in imports and drop in Chinese trade and manufacturing, compounded by a week of global data that foretold of an ongoing economic crisis. Also warning from the OECD and also a change in forecast for energy demands by the EIA.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weeklyreports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of Aug 6-10 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Aug 6 |
GBP |
Halifax HPI m/m |
-0.6% |
-0.5% |
0.8% |
|
EUR |
Sentix Investor Confidence |
-30.3 |
-30.8 |
-29.6 |
|
|
GBP |
BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y |
0.1% |
1.4% |
||
|
Aug 7 |
CHF |
Foreign Currency Reserves |
406.5B |
365.1B |
|
|
CHF |
CPI m/m |
-0.5% |
-0.5% |
-0.3% |
|
|
EUR |
Italian Industrial Production m/m |
-1.4% |
-1.0% |
1.0% |
|
|
GBP |
Manufacturing Production m/m |
-2.9% |
-4.0% |
1.2% |
|
|
EUR |
Italian Prelim GDP q/q |
-0.7% |
-0.7% |
-0.8% |
|
|
EUR |
German Factory Orders m/m |
-1.7% |
-0.9% |
0.7% |
|
|
GBP |
NIESR GDP Estimate |
-0.2% |
-0.7% |
||
|
Aug 8 |
CHF |
SECO Consumer Climate |
-17 |
-4 |
-8 |
|
EUR |
German 10-y Bond Auction |
1.42|1.8 |
1.31|1.5 |
||
|
EUR |
German Industrial Production m/m |
-0.9% |
-0.8% |
1.7% |
|
|
USD |
Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q |
1.6% |
1.5% |
-0.9% |
|
|
USD |
Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q |
1.7% |
0.5% |
1.3% |
|
|
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-3.7M |
-0.6M |
-6.5M |
|
|
USD |
10-y Bond Auction |
1.68|2.5 |
1.46|3.6 |
||
|
Aug 9 |
GBP |
Trade Balance |
-10.1B |
-8.5B |
-8.4B |
|
USD |
Trade Balance |
-42.9B |
-47.4B |
-48.0B |
|
|
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
361K |
371K |
367K |
|
|
USD |
Mortgage Delinquencies |
7.58% |
7.40% |
||
|
Aug 10 |
EUR |
French Industrial Production m/m |
0.0% |
0.4% |
-2.1% |
|
GBP |
PPI Input m/m |
1.3% |
1.4% |
-2.9% |
|
|
USD |
Import Prices m/m |
-0.6% |
0.1% |
-2.4% |
|
|
USD |
Federal Budget Balance |
-69.6B |
-103.0B |
-59.7B |
Historical: From 2010 to Present
Highest: 114.81 on May 02, 2011
Average: 89.58 over this period
Lowest: 67.17 on May 25, 2010
WEEKLY
- This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule) - Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule) - Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Aug 14 |
5:30 |
EUR |
French Prelim GDP q/q |
0.0% |
|
6:00 |
EUR |
German Prelim GDP q/q |
0.5% |
|
|
9:00 |
EUR |
ZEW Economic Sentiment |
-22.3 |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Core Retail Sales m/m |
-0.4% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
PPI m/m |
0.1% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Retail Sales m/m |
-0.5% |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Business Inventories m/m |
0.3% |
|
|
Aug 15 |
12:30 |
USD |
Core CPI m/m |
0.2% |
|
12:30 |
USD |
Empire State Manufacturing Index |
7.4 |
|
|
13:15 |
USD |
Industrial Production m/m |
0.4% |
|
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-3.7M |
|
|
Aug6 |
9:00 |
CHF |
ZEW Economic Expectations |
-42.5 |
|
9:00 |
EUR |
CPI y/y |
2.4% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Building Permits |
0.76M |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
361K |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Housing Starts |
0.76M |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index |
-12.9 |
|
|
Aug 17 |
6:00 |
EUR |
German PPI m/m |
-0.4% |
|
8:00 |
EUR |
Current Account |
10.9B |
|
|
13:55 |
USD |
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment |
72.3 |
Click here for updated Crude Oil News.
Originally posted here
