By FXEmpire.com
Introduction: Crude Oil is considered the king of the commodities markets.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the United States’ emergency oil stockpile, and it is the largest emergency petroleum supply in the world. The reserve stores about 570 million barrels of crude oil in underground salt caverns at four sites along the Gulf of Mexico. Any dipping into this reserve is going to be big news.
Brent Crude is traded in London as something called Futures contracts, which are priced in US Dollars. Now, all you traders brave enough to run your positions over a period of days or weeks, pay attention
Most commonly traded is the NYMEX where you find West Texas Crude. It is also traded in USD.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
Crude Oil tumbled all week to fall below the important 80.00 number. Crude closed the week at 80.11 after inching up Friday afternoon.
Surging crude output in the U.S. offsets the reversal of the Seaway pipeline, pressuring WTI prices to the lowest levels since November.
The Department of Energy reported this morning that in the week ending May 18, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 0.9 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.3 million barrels, distillate inventories decreased by 0.3 million barrels and total petroleum inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels.
The story remains the same: Crude oil, along with other risk assets such as stocks, has been in correction mode amid mounting economic worries in the United States and China, as well as sovereign debt fears in the eurozone.
Crude oil prices continued to free-fall this week amid oversupply concerns. Crude is being pressured by oversupply concerns within a backdrop of weakening economic growth. That is a recipe for bearish price action.
Of the three pillars of the recent surge in oil supply–Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United States–only Saudi Arabia can significantly reduce output in the relatively short amount of time. The Kingdom has been unusually mum throughout this plunge in prices, creating an especially uncertain environment.
The OPEC ministers recently agreed to keep production at the set quotas and to stop over production.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of June 19-23, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Importance |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jun. 19 |
02:30 |
AUD |
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes |
||||
|
10:00 |
EUR |
German ZEW Economic Sentiment |
-16.9 |
4.0 |
10.8 |
||
|
Jun. 20 |
09:30 |
GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
8.1K |
-3.0K |
-12.8K |
|
|
17:30 |
USD |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.25% |
0.25% |
0.25% |
||
|
19:15 |
USD |
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks |
|||||
|
23:45 |
NZD |
GDP (QoQ) |
1.1% |
0.5% |
0.4% |
||
|
Jun. 21 |
09:30 |
GBP |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
1.4% |
1.2% |
-2.4% |
|
|
13:30 |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
-0.3% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|||
|
13:30 |
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
387K |
380K |
389K |
||
|
15:00 |
USD |
Existing Home Sales |
4.55M |
4.57M |
4.62M |
||
|
Jun. 22 |
09:00 |
EUR |
German Ifo Business Climate Index |
105.3 |
105.9 |
106.9 |
|
|
13:30 |
CAD |
Core CPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
Historical:
Highest:114.81 onMay 02, 2011
Average:88.78 over this period
Lowest:67.17 on May 25, 2010
WEEKLY
- This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule) - Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule) - Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Jun 25 |
6:00 |
EUR |
GfK German Consumer Climate |
5.7 |
|
25th-30th |
GBP |
Nationwide HPI m/m |
0.3% |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
New Home Sales |
343K |
|
|
Jun 26 |
8:30 |
GBP |
Public Sector Net Borrowing |
-18.8B |
|
13:00 |
USD |
S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y |
-2.6% |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence |
64.9 |
|
|
Jun 27 |
All Day |
EUR |
German Prelim CPI m/m |
-0.2% |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
BBA Mortgage Approvals |
32.4K |
|
|
10:00 |
GBP |
CBI Realized Sales |
21 |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Durable Goods Orders m/m |
0.2% |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
Pending Home Sales m/m |
-5.5% |
|
|
14:30 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
||
|
Jun 28 |
7:55 |
EUR |
German Unemployment Change |
0K |
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Current Account |
-8.5B |
|
|
8:30 |
GBP |
BOE Credit Conditions Survey |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
Final GDP q/q |
-0.3% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
Final GDP q/q |
1.9% |
|
|
23:01 |
GBP |
GfK Consumer Confidence |
-29 |
|
|
Jun 29 |
29th-4th |
EUR |
German Retail Sales m/m |
0.6% |
|
6:45 |
EUR |
French Consumer Spending m/m |
0.6% |
|
|
7:00 |
CHF |
KOF Economic Barometer |
0.81 |
|
|
8:00 |
EUR |
M3 Money Supply y/y |
2.5% |
|
|
9:00 |
EUR |
CPI Flash Estimate y/y |
2.4% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Core PCE Price Index m/m |
0.1% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
Personal Spending m/m |
0.3% |
|
|
13:45 |
USD |
Chicago PMI |
52.7 |
|
|
13:55 |
USD |
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment |
74.1 |
Click here for further Crude Oil Forecast.
Originally posted here
