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DOLLAR: The Dollar index managed a definitive downside extension in the early action today and that would seem to be the result of ongoing flight to quality liquidation. With the June Dollar Index presented with some technical support at the 82.00 level and the US Housing Starts and Permits information a very critical release today, one should expect a major decision in the market this morning. Adding into the downside bias in the Dollar this morning is an optimistic view toward the German economy from the German ZEW readings. However, without gains in excess of 3% in both US Housing Starts and Permits this morning, the June Dollar index might find it difficult to punch through the critical support zone down at 82.00. In the end, we suspect that the action in the equity markets will be an extremely critical influence on the Dollar and for the Dollar to move to a new lower trading range ahead will probably require an extension of gains in stock prices.

EURO: Surprisingly Euro action this morning is very up beat, as the Dollar decline and favorable German ZEW reading have combined to pump up the Euro. In fact, the German ZEW suggested that the worst of the contraction was past and that expectations managed to rise sharply in the month of May and that really serves to bail out the Euro bulls from the recent concern of a return to sustained global slowing. Critical resistance and an upside breakout point on the charts is seen at 136.68 basis the June Euro today. Like the US stock market, the Euro bull’s probably need to see something positive from the US Housing starts and Permits data to directly extend on the upside.

YEN: It goes without saying that the flight to quality long liquidation pressure is expected to extend in the action today, as US corporate earnings news has added to the bullish global macro economic sentiment that was put back in play in the prior trading session. With the residual baggage of the swine flu situation in Japan and the bad technical action on the Yen charts, it would seem like the June Yen is poised for a slide down to the 103.12 level.

SWISS: Like the Euro, the Swiss is expected to be lifted by broad based macro economic optimism. However, upside momentum in the Swiss looks to be somewhat muted, as the market isn’t completely convinced that the recovery view is going to be entrenched. In order to give off consistently bullish technical signals, the June Swiss needs to respect up trend channel support on the charts at 88.94 today and at 89.13 on Wednesday.

POUND: With the latest flow of positive macro economic views, the June Pound appears to be poised to rise sharply. We have been labeling the Pound as a recovery currency for several weeks and that name will probably resonate with the sharp upward action today. In fact, the June Pound looks to be on track to regain the 200 day moving average up at 156.22 in the coming 24 hours. It is even possible that UK inflation readings overnight are actually adding into the bullish momentum in the Pound.

CANADIAN DOLLAR: The June Canadian clearly rejected a recent retest of the 200 day moving average and would now appear to be poised to reach the highest level since early October at some point later this week. As in the Pound, we have been calling the Canadian a recovery currency, for a number of weeks and given the potential extension of the upside in the equity markets, we would not be surprised to see the 87.50 level in the June Canadian become a solid support in the coming week’s action.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: More flight to quality liquidation is expected in the Dollar and the Yen today, with the Dollar/Yen weakness giving the Pound and the Canadian a huge lift.

This content originated from – The Hightower Report.
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