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DOLLAR: The Dollar has already forged a fresh downside breakout on the charts this morning and that leaves the down trend pattern intact despite signs that the US economy might be gaining some footing. Apparently the currency trade continues to doubt the pace of the US economic recovery and it also doubts that US interest rates are destined to rise anytime soon. It goes without saying that the world sees the push for US health care reform, as an ongoing burden for the deficit. In short, the market bias remains down toward the Dollar and even a measure of economic optimism doesn’t seem to temper the negative track in the Greenback. Not surprisingly, the Dollar showed almost no life in the wake of statements from Geithner overnight that the US wants a strong Dollar. The market also didn’t seem to buy into the Treasury Secretary comments that the US will eventually get its deficit under control. In short, the bear camp doesn’t seem to have any fear of a counter trend move. Near term downside targeting in the December Dollar is seen down at 74.15.
EURO: So far, the Euro hasn’t taken out the October highs, but the Euro has managed to rise above the 150 level, which in recent weeks, was pegged as an extreme exchange rate level by certain ECB officials. Given strong gains in global equity markets again overnight and generally positive economic data flowing from China overnight, that should leave the recovery currencies like the Euro with a definitive edge against the US Dollar. Near term support in the December Euro now moves up to 150.24 and there might be little in the way of significant resistance until the 150.62 level.
YEN: While the Yen managed an impressive range up extension overnight, that move was clearly rejected in a rather aggressive manner. The bull camp has to be disappointed that beneficial Chinese economic data failed to sustain a strong Yen, as that dampens the idea that the Japanese economy is going to draft off the Chinese economy. The yen also continues to show signs of weakness in the face of market environments, that show an increase in risk appetites and therefore we see the overnight highs in the Yen as really significant near term resistance. In fact, we see closer-in resistance in the December Yen over the coming 24 hours to be 111.36.
SWISS: The Swiss is seemingly poised to return to and above the old highs. Apparently the up beat global economic outlook has caused the Swiss trade to toss aside the threat of central bank intervention. After some initial resistance up at 99.71, the December Swiss is probably set to move to an even higher trading range in the coming trading sessions and that should in turn make the old highs critical support.
POUND: The BOE comments overnight seem to have taken the Pound out of the recovery currency mode this morning. In other words, the BOE suggested that their easing efforts are working, but that inflation looks to remain under control in the near term. In a real rally killer, the BOE also suggested that the chance of an absolute disaster had diminished and that clearly prompted traders to stand aside from the Pound to other less risky currencies. In the end, seeing the BOE remain in an excess easing posture, seemed to prompt traders to bank profits on a currency that has had a fairly aggressive run up off the November lows.
CANADIAN DOLLAR: A definitive range up extension in the Canadian Dollar overnight would seem to project the December Canadian back above the 96.00 level in the coming trading sessions. We suspect that ongoing defined down trend pressure in the Dollar and very up beat macro economic views toward the Chinese economy, plays right into the hands of the Canadian Dollar bulls. In fact, we can’t argue against a December Canadian trade of 96.93 in the coming week.
TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: More down in the US Dollar ahead, with the Canadian, Euro and Swiss the primary benefactors of the currency market trends.
