* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, the World Bank cut its annual world economic growth forecast to 2.8% from its last forecast of up 3.2%, in January. This news is a bit bullish for the gold market as it hints the world’s major central banks can keep their easy-money policies in place at least a while longer.

A feature in the market place recently has been the sinking value of the Euro currency and the rising value of the U.S. dollar. Last week’s new monetary stimulus measures from the European Central Bank were a bearish underlying development for the Euro currency, as it hovers near a four-month low. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is trading near a four-month high. This currency price action has historically been bearish for the raw commodity sector. However, the gold market has just recently rebounded from lower price levels and Nymex crude oil futures prices are at contract highs around $105.00 a barrel.

The recently rallying U.S. dollar index has been a bearish “outside market” force working against the precious metals markets. However, rising crude oil prices recently have worked to offset the bearish effect of the strengthening greenback. Nymex July crude oil futures prices hit a contract high near $105.00 a barrel Tuesday morning.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, and the monthly Treasury budget statement.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 5.0 (The Russia-Ukraine crisis has died down in the eyes of the market place, while the rest of the world is also quiet on the geopolitics front.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

–Jim Wyckoff

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 September e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early trading on more profit taking after hitting a record high on Monday. Bulls are still in solid overall near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at overnight high of 1,943.50 and then at the record high of 1,947.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,930.25 and then at 1,913.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower early today and seeing profit taking after hitting a 13-year high on Tuesday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 3,798.00 and then at Tuesday’s for-the-move high of 3,804.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at this week’s low of 3,782.00 and then at 3,777.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Dow futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and seeing profit taking after hitting a record high Monday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 16,900 and then at 16,942. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 16,840 and then at 16,800. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady early today. Bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 135 even and then at 135 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 134 18/32 and then at last week’s low of 134 15/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0 September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early trading today but did hit a four-week low overnight. Bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded recently. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 124.08.0 and then at 124.11.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 123.25.5 and then at 123.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading, on profit taking from recent gains. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.010 and then at last week’s high of 81.170. Shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 80.675 and then at 80.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

July Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher and hovering near Tuesday’s contract high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. In July Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the contract high of $105.06 and then at $105.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $104.25 and then at $104.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed in overnight trading. Traders are awaiting the mid-morning USDA monthly supply and demand report, which is not expected to contain any major surprises. Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt is now benign for the corn and soybean crops, and that’s bearish for prices. Technically, soybean bulls still have the near-term advantage, but have faded. Wheat and corn bears have the firm near-term technical edge.