* Latest Market Developments *

The European Central Bank is holding its monthly meeting Thursday. Many believe the ECB will not yet move to further stimulate EU monetary policy, but most think it is coming. The press conference by ECB president Mario Draghi following the meeting will be closely scrutinized, as usual. Recent economic data coming out of the European Union suggests the ECB will make its move in the first quarter of 2015. The Euro currency slumped to a two-year low overnight, partly due to notions more easing is coming soon from the ECB.

The Bank of England Thursday kept its monetary policy steady, as expected, at its regular monthly meeting. The BOE mentioned the very low inflationary environment in Europe as reason for not raising rates.

In other overnight news, Russian president Vladimir Putin is striking a more defiant tone as he feels the bite of Western sanctions and falling crude oil prices. This week the Russian central bank moved to intervene in the foreign exchange market in an effort to support the flagging ruble, which has fallen to a record low versus the U.S. dollar. Reports Thursday said Putin has accused the West of creating the Ukrainian crisis and also warned speculators betting against the ruble. In a speech to Russian government officials Putin reminded everyone of the military strength of Russia.

The U.S. dollar index pushed to a four-year high overnight. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are trading slightly lower in early U.S. trading.

Traders and investors are also awaiting what is arguably the most important U.S. economic data point of the month: Friday’s employment situation report from the U.S. Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls figure is expected to rise by around 230,000 in November.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job cuts report, and ICSC chain store sales trends.

(Note: Follow me on Twitter–@jimwyckoff–for breaking market news.)

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (While geopolitical risks have been moved to the back burner of the market place, the plunging crude oil market has somewhat rattled the market place.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

–Jim Wyckoff

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 March e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early trading and hovering near Wednesday’s record high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s record high of 2,068.50 and then at 2,075.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Wednesday’s low of 2,056.00 and then at this week’s low of 2,041.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high at this week’s high of 4,330.50 and then at the recent 14-year high of 4,349.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 4,300.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,285.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday’s record high of 17,915 and then at 17,950. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of 17,850 and then at 17,800. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher early today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 141 16/32 and then at 142 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 141 even and then at this week’s low of 140 26/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5 March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 126.13.0 and then at 126.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 126.05.0 and then at 126.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading and hit another contract and four-year high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral to bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 89.320 and then at 89.500. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 89.180 and then at 89.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears remain in strong overall near-term technical control. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $68.22 and then at $69.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $66.00 and then at $65.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Grain futures markets were mostly lower in overnight trading. Corn and soybean bulls are fading. January soybeans see a bearish head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern that has formed on the daily chart. Wheat is the upside mover this week as prices hit four-month highs. Wheat prices remain in an uptrend, but are seeing profit taking and some spillover selling pressure from corn and soybeans. Traders will closely scrutinize today’s weekly USDA export sales data.