* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The Group of 20 nations meets in Moscow on Friday and Saturday. A main topic will likely be currency values as many industrialized nations have in recent months, or longer, worked to devalue their currencies to revive their economic growth. The Group of Seven nations has issued statements before the G-20 meeting begins. A statement Tuesday said their central banks were not attempting to devalue their currencies, but instead trying to boost their economic growth rates. The G-7 nations also said they will not target specific currency exchange rates. Then on Wednesday another G-7 statement said the group has asked Japan to not buy foreign bonds with the yen. Japanese finance officials were considering that method to effectively devalue the yen. The value of the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar has fallen by around 15% since November. The G-7 statements are meant to head off growing concerns that “currency wars” could break out if there is not some form of agreement reached soon by the major nations, regarding currency exchange rates. The market place will continue to watch for news coming ahead of and during the Moscow G-20 meeting. The Lunar New Year celebration is occurring this week in Asia. China, the number-two economy in the world, is on holiday all week for the celebration. That is keeping Asian markets quiet and is also spilling over into some more subdued trade in Europe and the U.S.Reports Wednesday said that German government borrowing costs at its debt auctions have risen to the highest levels in nearly a year. That’s a sign of improving investor risk appetite among European Union investors, and another clue that the EU debt crisis has at least stabilized and may be turning the corner toward recovery. The recent strength in the Euro currency is also signal of better times ahead for the European Union. U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, import and export price indexes, retail sales, manufacturing and trade inventories and sales, and the weekly DOE energy stocks report.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly higher in early trading today and poked to another five-year high. Not much new. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,525.00 and then at 1,535.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,500.00 and then at last week’s low of 1,490.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early trading and hovering near a four-month high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have recently seen a bullish upside “breakout” from a sideways trading range. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at this week’s high of 2,779.50 and then at 2,800.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of 2,759.00 and then at 2,750.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today and hit a fresh five-year high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of 13,925 and then
at this week’s low of 13,895. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 14,000 and then at 14,050. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower again early today and are hovering near the recent contract low. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as risk appetite in the market place has been on the upswing for several weeks. That’s bearish for safe-haven bonds and notes. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 143 even and then the overnight high of 143 14/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 142 21/32 and then at 142 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 131.10.0 and then at the overnight high of 131.17.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.05.5 and then at 131.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is lower early today. The greenback bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.13 and then at 80.35. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.96 and then at 79.75. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today and hovering near a five-month high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have this week regained upside near-term technical momentum. In March Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the January high of $98.24 and then at $99.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $97.50 and then at $97.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were lower overnight. Grain market bulls have faded badly recently as the seasonal “February Break” phenomenon is at hand. There may be some near-term selling pressure in the grains, but I am still longer-term bullish the grains. Thus, present price weakness in the grains could be seen as value-buying opportunities looking at what prices could be fetching in the coming months.