The following stock price indexes closed above their closing price highs of the previous 2 years, thereby confirming major bullish trends:
Dow Jones Composite Average
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Nasdaq 100, .NDX
Nasdaq Composite NAS/NMS, .IXIC
Russell 1000
Russell 3000
S&P 100 Large Caps, .OEX
S&P 500 Composite, .SPX
Wilshire 5000
Nasdaq A-D Line rose above 8-month highs.
The following Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) closed above their closing price highs of the previous 2 years, thereby confirming major bullish trends:
Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
Industrial SPDR, XLI
QQQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust & VXN
Rydex S&P Equal Weight (RSP)
S&P 100, OEF
S&P 500 ETF SPDR, SPY
Technology SPDR, XLK
Value 1000 Russell, IWD
Vanguard Total VIPERs, VTI
The following Sector ETFs are defensive (less dependent on economic growth), and they are clearly underperforming, based on objective relative strength trend indicators:
Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
Health Care SPDR, XLV
Utilities SPDR, XLU
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below 6-month lows and is neutral at best (but rapidly heading toward bearish).
Commodities (oil, gold, silver, copper, CRB index, etc.) pulled back in normal short-term corrections but remain in bullish major long-term trends.
The U.S. dollar price recovered most of its 2-week loss but now is at resistance.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
7.46% , NCR , NCR
7.34% , AIG , AMER INTL GROUP
9.71% , LVLT , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
7.05% , ADSK , AUTODESK
7.67% , NVDA , NVIDIA
4.77% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
4.99% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
0.69% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
0.79% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
2.93% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
5.31% , BC , BRUNSWICK
1.68% , IGN , Networking, IGN
4.29% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
4.21% , COF , CAPITAL ONE FNCL
4.99% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
3.16% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
2.16% , LSI , LSI LOGIC
0.68% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
3.74% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
2.34% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
3.46% , BK , BANK OF NEW YORK
2.61% , GIS , GENERAL MILLS
1.92% , YHOO , YAHOO
5.17% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
4.35% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
3.77% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
0.80% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
1.34% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
2.55% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
3.42% , EK , EASTMAN KODAK
0.73% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
2.29% , LMT , LOCKHEED MARTIN
3.08% , GT , GOODYEAR TIRE
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.97% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-8.76% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
-1.19% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.47% , PMR , Retail, PMR
-4.35% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
-4.86% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
-1.90% , LM , LEGG MASON
-2.12% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
-2.96% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
-0.38% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
-0.15% , SWH , Software H, SWH
-1.23% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
-1.40% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-2.20% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.75% , TGT , TARGET
-1.51% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
-0.83% , WOR , WORTHINGTON INDS
-1.27% , DLX , DELUXE
-0.94% , CEPH , Cephalon Inc
-1.64% , BEN , FRANKLIN RSC
-1.64% , MDT , MEDTRONIC
-1.68% , EWT , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.31% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.91% , EPI , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.87% , NSM , NATL SEMICONDUCT
-1.40% , ORCL , ORACLE
-1.68% , TER , TERADYNE
-1.03% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
-1.50% , AMAT , APPLIED MATERIAL
-0.73% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
-2.09% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
-0.85% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-0.43% , MI , MARSHAL & ILSLEY
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Energy (XLE) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose further above 14-month highs on 12/31/10 highs, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Absolute price of XLE rose above 2-year highs on 1/3/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 65.25, 65.03, 60.96, 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 69.95 and 78.10.
Materials (XLB) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose above 11-month highs on 12/30/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 1/3/11 and remains bullish. Support 34.20, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 40.15 and 41.06.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 12/27/10, thereby turning neutral. Absolute price rose above 3-year highs on 1/5/11 and remains bullish. Support 37.29, 37.15, 36.61, 36.13, 35.32, 35.02, 34.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 39.09, 40.13, and 40.70.
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 2-year highs on 12/16/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 1/5/11 and remains bullish. Support 31.82, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 36.16.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below 8-week lows on 12/16/10 and turned neutral for the secondary trend. This RS ratio rose above 8-year highs on 11/3/10, which was a bullish confirmation of the primary uptrend. Absolute price of XLK rose above 2-year highs on 1/5/11 and remains bullish. Support 23.87, 23.74, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 25.69, 27.43, 27.63, and 28.60.
Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/8/10, thereby turning neutral. Absolute price turned bullish as of 12/22/10 when the rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA. Support 15.39, 15.08, 14.36, 14.25, 14.20, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell further below 8-month lows on 1/5/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 12/16/10 and remains bullish. Support 29.10, 28.22, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 30.29.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 2-year lows on 1/3/11 and remains bearish, as it has been most of the time since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price rose above 8-month highs on 1/5/11 and remains bullish. Support 30.14, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 5-year lows on 1/5/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLU rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/3/11 and is technically bullish. Support 30.51, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.11 and 32.40.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell further below 4-month lows on 12/28/10 and remains neutral
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below 6-month lows on 1/5/11 and is neutral at best (but rapidly heading toward bearish).
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio eased slightly below its 50-day SMA on 1/4/11, turning neutral technically. The ratio rose above 9-year highs on 11/26/10, confirming a bullish Primary uptrend for the longer-term.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/4/11, turning neutral technically. The ratio fell below 28-year lows on 12/3/10, confirming a major bearish trend. Big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 20-year highs on 12/21/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price closed above 2-year closing price highs on 12/27/10 and remains bullish.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 12/17/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price closed above 2-year closing price highs on 1/3/11, and remains bullish.
CRB Index of commodity prices rose above 2-year highs on 1/3/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price fell below 2-week lows on 1/4/11, possibly suggesting a minor, short-term shakeout. Oil rose above 2-year highs on 1/3/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 87.43, 86.83, 83.55, 80.28, 80.06, 79.84, 79.25, 78.86, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 98.65 and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract price fell below 2-week lows on 1/5/11, possibly suggesting a minor, short-term shakeout. Gold rose above previous all-time highs and confirmed a bullish major trend on 12/7/10. Support 1361.6, 1352.6, 1329.0, 1325.5, 1317.5, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1432.5.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) has been trending lower since making a top on 12/6/10.
Silver nearest futures contract price fell below 2-week lows on 1/5/11, possibly suggesting a minor, short-term shakeout. Silver rose above previous 30-year highs on 1/3/11, thereby confirming its preexisting bullish major trend for the long term.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose above 3-year highs on 12/31/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold substantially since 8/20/10.
Copper nearest futures contract price fell below 4-day lows on 1/5/11, possibly suggesting a minor, short-term shakeout. Copper rose above multi-year highs on 1/3/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 4.204, 4.08, 3.9795, 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance: none.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price has turned choppy and still looks uncertain for the short term. The bond contract fell below the lows of the previous 7 months on 12/15/10, confirming a bearish major trend. Support 118.21, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06, 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 121.20, 122.02, 123.26, 128.00 129.14, 129.27, 132.26, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above 8-month highs on 12/28/10 and remains bullish. JNK absolute price rose above 6-week highs on 12/27/10, which is bullish for the short term. Price rose above 2-year highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish for the longer term.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) is in a rising trend since making a low on 8/24/10, even as absolute price of TIP has declined. A rising Relative Strength Ratio implies that fixed-income investors have been selling inflation protected Notes at a relatively more subdued pace compared to the U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Note (IEF) over the past 4 months.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price recovered most of its 2-week loss but now is at resistance. USD fell below 5-week lows on 12/31/10, reconfirming a short-term downtrend. USD may have found resistance near its 200-day SMA, which stands near chart resistance at 81.525 to 82.02. Longer term, USD fell below 11-month lows on 11/3/10, thereby confirming a bearish long-term price trend. Support 78.01, 75.23, 74.27, and 70.80. Resistance 81.185, 81.525, 81.935, 82.02, 83.64, 84.73, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 55.6% Bulls versus 20.0% Bears as of 12/29/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio stands at 2.78, which is nearly two standard deviations above the long-term, 20-year mean. This is not overly excessive bullish sentiment in the second year of a bull market. Bullish Sentiment tends to rise in November and December every year. The ratio was as high as it is now or higher in Decembers of each year 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006, and none of these “high” readings led to bear markets. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.54, and the mean is 1.61.
VIX Fear Index fell below 8-month lows to 15.40 on 12/23/10, reflecting diminishing fear among options players. VIX is near its 3-year low of 15.23 set on 4/12/10. Before we take the current level of VIX as a sell signal, however, we might consider that VIX was as low as 9.89 on 1/24/07, nearly 10 months before the final tops in the price indexes. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 1/3/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above closing price highs of the previous 2-years. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. While other Dow Theorists were fooled by the big downside Secondary Reaction in May and June 2010 and called a “Bear Market”, my interpretation of the Dow Theory has been steadily Bullish on the Primary Tide Trend every day since 7/23/09.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,276.56) rose above highs of the previous 2-years on 1/5/11, thereby confirming the Dow Theory Bullish Primary Tide Trend.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1251.48, low of 12/27/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.89% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.68% Networking, IGN
1.51% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.49% Microcap Russell, IWC
1.49% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.44% Malaysia Index, EWM
1.40% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.39% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
1.23% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.20% Financial SPDR, XLF
1.19% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.17% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
1.16% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.13% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.13% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.11% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.07% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.06% Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.01% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.01% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
0.97% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.97% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.95% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.94% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.93% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.93% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.86% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.85% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.83% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.82% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.77% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.75% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.72% Mexico Index, EWW
0.71% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.69% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.68% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.68% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.65% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.64% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.63% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.59% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.59% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.57% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.57% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.57% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.56% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.56% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.56% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.56% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.55% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.54% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.53% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.53% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.53% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.52% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.51% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.51% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.51% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.51% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.50% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.48% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.48% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.48% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.45% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.44% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.41% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.40% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.36% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.34% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.34% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.32% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.30% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.30% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.28% Energy DJ, IYE
0.25% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.23% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.22% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.22% Singapore Index, EWS
0.19% Canada Index, EWC
0.18% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.17% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.17% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.12% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.10% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
0.08% China 25 iS, FXI
0.06% Italy Index, EWI
0.06% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.05% Water Resources, PHO
0.03% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.03% South Korea Index, EWY
0.03% Energy Global, IXC
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.06% Global 100, IOO
-0.09% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.09% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.10% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.18% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.19% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.19% Dividend International, PID
-0.23% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.25% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.28% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.31% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.35% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.37% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.38% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.39% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.43% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.44% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.45% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.46% Russia MV, RSX
-0.48% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.57% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.61% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.62% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.63% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.64% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.67% India PS, PIN
-0.68% Australia Index, EWA
-0.73% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.73% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.81% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.85% France Index, EWQ
-0.91% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.97% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.99% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.06% Belgium Index, EWK
-1.08% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-1.17% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.19% Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.23% Spain Index, EWP
-1.41% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.43% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-1.49% Germany Index, EWG
-1.54% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.62% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.68% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.97% Austria Index, EWO
-2.20% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
