Consumer Discretionary stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 12-year highs on 11/10/10 and remains bullish. XLY has been at the top of my sector rankings for more than a year and has outperformed substantially.
Energy stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose above 7-month highs on 11/10/10 and is nearly at a new bullish signal, with the 50-day SMA very closely approaching the 200-day SMA. A “Golden Cross” is nearly certain in another day or two.
Consumer Staples stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell below 5-month lows on 11/10/10 and remains bearish.
Health Care stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 6-month lows on 11/10/10 and remains bearish, as it has been most of the time since peaking on 2/23/09.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 5-month highs on 11/10/10 and remains bullish.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 11/10/10 and remains bullish.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price rose above 2-year highs on 11/10/10, again reconfirming a bullish major long-term price trend.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price fell below the lows of the previous 2 months on 11/10/10 before reversing to close higher, hinting at the possibility of a minor bounce. A bearish trend is evident for the intermediate-term trend, however.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price gave up nearly all of its early gain after approaching resistance on 11/10/10. Short-term upside price momentum may be running out.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,218.71) rose 5.31 points or 0.44% on Wednesday 11/10/10. On Monday and Tuesday, SPX retraced a normal 37% fraction of last week’s big gain, which would be a typical minor price pullback within a larger uptrend. Pullbacks ought to be limited in this phase of the stock market. On Friday, SPX closed above its closing price highs of the previous 25 months and again confirmed The Dow Theory Primary Tide Bull Market.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
7.29% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
6.25% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
2.42% , MTB , M&T BANK
7.96% , SNV , SYNOVUS
3.95% , KMX , CarMax
0.60% , IWW , Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
3.75% , ABK , AMBAC FINL GRP
1.00% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
4.93% , HAR , Harman International
0.38% , IWZ , Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
0.58% , BBH , Biotech H, BBH
0.87% , JKL , Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
2.45% , AZO , AUTOZONE
0.38% , ELV , Value Large Cap DJ, ELV
5.00% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
1.79% , DRI , DARDEN REST
0.87% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
1.41% , JKJ , SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
1.42% , PWT , Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
1.93% , TLAB , TELLABS
1.28% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
0.44% , PWV , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.55% , IWV , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
2.46% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
2.72% , AM , AMER GREETINGS STK A
5.99% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
0.61% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.35% , DYN , DYNEGY
2.67% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.14% , HHH , Internet H, HHH
0.75% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc
0.87% , IJJ , Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
2.58% , ALL , ALLSTATE
2.55% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
2.74% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
0.87% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
1.95% , MBI , MBIA
0.29% , SWH , Software H, SWH
0.81% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
1.06% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.39% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-3.33% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
-0.40% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
-3.13% , VFC , VF
-3.15% , BA , BOEING
-0.56% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-1.57% , NOVL , NOVELL
-2.84% , COL , ROCKWELL COLLINS
-2.21% , RAI , Reynolds American
-0.55% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
-0.56% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-1.82% , WPO , Washington Post
-1.37% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
-0.59% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.66% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
-1.45% , MO , ALTRIA, MO
-0.95% , GLW , CORNING
-1.72% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
-0.97% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
-0.82% , HYG , Bond High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.73% , GAS , NICOR
-1.03% , ADI , ANALOG DEVICES
-0.37% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
-0.89% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-1.12% , BEN , FRANKLIN RSC
-1.36% , GT , GOODYEAR TIRE
-0.76% , GENZ , GENZYME
-1.55% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
-0.22% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.70% , XRX , XEROX
-0.59% , UTH , Utilities H, UTH
-0.95% , MHP , MCGRAW HILL
-0.12% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.94% , DLX , DELUXE
-0.25% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.70% , CHRW.O , CH Robinson Worldwide Inc, CHRWD
-2.23% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
-0.86% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
-1.69% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
-0.98% , TXT , TEXTRON
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 12-year highs on 11/10/10 and remains bullish. XLY has been at the top of my sector rankings for more than a year and has outperformed substantially. Absolute price rose above 3-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish. Support 35.96, 35.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 38.25 and 39.09.
Technology (XLK) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) rose above 8-year highs on 11/3/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLK rose above 2-year highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish. Support 24.76, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 25.69.
Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose above 7-month highs on 11/10/10 and is nearly at a new bullish signal, with the 50-day SMA very closely approaching the 200-day SMA. A “Golden Cross” is nearly certain in another day or two. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/9/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the rising 200-day SMA. Support 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 63.26, 69.95, and 78.10.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose above 9-month highs on 11/8/10 and is bullish. Absolute price rose above rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish. Support 35.36, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 37.56 and 39.00.
Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) fell below 10-week lows on 11/10/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish. Support 32.59, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 35.00 and 36.16.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell below 5-month lows on 11/10/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish. Support 28.56, 28.28, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 29.00, 29.29 and 30.29.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) is below the 50-day SMA and the 200-day SMA, which is bearish. Absolute price of XLF rose above 5-month highs on 11/5/10 and remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 14.75, 14.25, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 6-month lows on 11/10/10 and remains bearish, as it has been most of the time since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price of XLV rose above 6-month highs on 11/4/10 and is now bullish. Support 30.70, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 5-month lows on 11/8/10. Absolute price of XLU peaked on 10/20/10 and appears neutral. Support 31.25, 30.76, 30.15, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.11 and 32.40.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose above 2-week highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) rose above 2-week highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 9-year highs on 11/2/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/8/10 and remains bullish.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below 28-year lows on 11/2/10. The ratio has been trending lower since 8/3/10. Longer term, big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 5-month highs on 11/10/10 and remains bullish.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 11/10/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish.
The CRB Index of commodity prices rose above 2-year highs on 11/9/10.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price rose above 2-year highs on 11/10/10, again reconfirming a bullish major long-term price trend. Support 79.84, 78.86, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract price rose above previous all-time highs on 11/9/10. Trends in all time frames are confirmed bullish. Support 1315.6, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: none.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) rose above 11-month highs on 11/8/10 and remains bullish.
Silver nearest futures contract price soared above previous 30-year highs on 11/9/10 before reversing sharply.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose further above 2-year highs on 11/5/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold substantially since 8/20/10.
Copper nearest futures contract price moved above previous 2-year highs on 11/9/10. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 3.7035, 3.6445, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 3.90, 4.0825, and 4.27.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price fell below the lows of the previous 2 months on 11/10/10 before reversing to close higher, hinting at the possibility of a minor bounce. A bearish trend is evident for the intermediate-term trend, however. Support 127.14, 126.01, 125.07, 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above 5-month highs on 10/27/10. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 10/29/10 and remains bullish.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) eroded over the past 2 weeks, which implies that fixed-income investors have choosing less inflation protection. Previously, the Ratio rose from 8/24/10 to 10/26/10, which implied that fixed-income investors were choosing more inflation protection.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price gave up nearly all of its early gain after approaching resistance on 11/10/10. Short-term upside price momentum may be running out. USD fell below 11-month lows on 11/3/10, thereby demonstrating bearish long-term price momentum. Sentiment has been extremely bearish for months, but it appears that bearish fundamentals might be overcoming the bottom fishing temptation. Support 75.235, 74.27, and 70.80. Resistance 78.34, 78.51, 78.61, 80.505, 82.335, 83.315, 83.64, 83.96, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 48.4% Bulls versus 23.1% Bears as of 11/10/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio stands at an above average 2.10, up from an extreme low of 0.78 on 9/1/10. That 0.78 was the lowest level of bullish sentiment in 17 months, since 3/25/09. Previously, the ratio had fallen substantially from an extreme peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.53, and the mean is 1.60.
VIX Fear Index collapsed to 17.92 on 11/5/10, down from 22.54 on 11/1/10. This indicates increasing bullish confidence and decreasing concern and hesitancy by options players to chase obvious price strength. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 11/3/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 25 months. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. Many other analysts were fooled into calling “Bear Market” by the big downside Secondary Reaction in May and June 2010, but my interpretation has been steadily Bullish on the Primary Trend.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,218.71) rose 5.31 points or 0.44% on Wednesday 11/10/10. On Monday and Tuesday, SPX retraced a normal 37% fraction of last week’s big gain, which would be a typical minor price pullback within a larger uptrend. Pullbacks ought to be limited in this phase of the stock market. On Friday, SPX closed above its closing price highs of the previous 25 months and again confirmed The Dow Theory Primary Tide Bull Market.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1227.08, high of 11/5/10
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1204.33, low of 11/10/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.67% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
2.24% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
2.06% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.55% South Korea Index, EWY
1.50% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.41% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.41% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
1.34% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
1.34% Water Resources, PHO
1.31% Energy DJ, IYE
1.29% Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.29% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.27% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.25% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.24% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.24% Microcap Russell, IWC
1.22% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.21% South Africa Index, EZA
1.19% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
1.18% REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.17% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
1.17% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
1.17% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.16% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.14% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.12% Financial SPDR, XLF
1.12% Japan Index, EWJ
1.11% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
1.07% Networking, IGN
1.06% Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.04% India PS, PIN
1.00% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.98% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.98% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.97% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.92% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.92% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.91% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.91% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.91% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.91% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.89% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.87% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.85% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.83% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.83% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.82% Sweden Index, EWD
0.81% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.81% Energy Global, IXC
0.80% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.78% Mexico Index, EWW
0.73% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.73% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.70% Canada Index, EWC
0.70% China 25 iS, FXI
0.69% Austria Index, EWO
0.67% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.67% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.63% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.62% Dividend International, PID
0.62% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.61% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.57% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.55% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.55% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.55% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.54% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.50% Russia MV, RSX
0.50% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.50% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.50% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.49% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.49% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.48% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.48% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.47% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.44% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.43% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.43% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.43% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.43% Australia Index, EWA
0.42% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.42% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.42% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.42% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.41% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.40% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.40% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.40% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.38% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.37% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.36% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.34% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.32% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.31% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.29% Belgium Index, EWK
0.29% EAFE Index, EFA
0.27% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.24% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.24% Global 100, IOO
0.24% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.17% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.14% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.14% European VIPERs, VGK
0.12% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.10% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.08% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.08% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.06% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.06% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.06% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.04% France Index, EWQ
0.04% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.03% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.07% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.08% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.10% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.10% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.12% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.12% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.16% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.20% Spain Index, EWP
-0.21% Germany Index, EWG
-0.21% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.22% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.22% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.25% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.31% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.32% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.34% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.38% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.44% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.56% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.56% Italy Index, EWI
-0.59% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.59% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.82% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
