Thursday another day playing around then the bulls stepped in and rallied the markets. A nice lift looked promising to test the big resistance overhead, but the final 90 minutes paused under that key level to close green. The NYSE, Nasdaq and futures all closed with slightly higher volume than the markets saw on Wednesday. Although the days volume was enough for an accumulation day it was still below average, indicating the market is missing mutual fund and institutional volume. So far the week is alternating up and down days, but as we sit now the week has some gains over last week and Friday will determine if we break that four week losing streak. The TRIN closed at .84 bullish and the VIX at 23.96. Gold closed up $18.90 to $1095.20 and oil up 76 cents to $75.28 a barrel.
The indexes fell shy of the 38.2% retracements at 2186.54 for the Nas Composite, 1783.41 Nas 100, 1084.97 SPX and Dow 10176.90. The drop off the January 11th highs to our lows last week leave that retracement as key, an orderly bounce would reject that level or let us over and see the upside continue after a correction. A test of that level early Friday is likely to just leave the market to chop. Expecting a lot leading into a three day weekend is not usually what we would look for. Volume is likely to fall off after the first 90 minutes and leave us with some dull chop.
Since the week has been lighter volume because weather we may see some spiky action after the opening. Data is due out and some data that didn’t come out Wednesday and Thursday should come out on Friday. That will help our volatility and keep some participation around for us. Short term the market is overbought, a gap up would be exhaustive and likely pull the market back in. We need volume to break the resistance outlined above, leaving that for next week would be better than breaking on light volume.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): some data is being moved around due to weather in D.C Friday 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations. Crude and Nat Gas inventories were moved to Friday.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market IR, PAS, UPL and nothing after the bell.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Friday’s pivot 1763.50, weekly pivot 1749. Support: 1762.75, 1757.75, 1752.75, 1744.75, 1736.75, 1730.50, 1725.25, 1721.50, 1718.50-1717, 1710.75, 1707, 1702.25. Resistance: 1781.50, 1785.50 fills gap-1786.50, 1803.25, 1809 fills gap, 1821.50, 1825
