Thursday closed the market modestly red on the NDX, COMPX and Dow, the SPX managed to get green by days end by pennies. Volume picked up the pace leaving a distribution day on the down indexes and an accumulation day on the SPX, however it is hard to get excited about that because of the reversal. The red indexes made a stellar move on volume to the upside. The TRIN closed 1.08 still bearish but like with volume has reason to view it as good for the bulls. The TRIN had been over 2 throughout most of the day and fell off as the rally continued to move the markets to the highs. The A/D and U/D lines closed on the highs of the day. The VIX sits just over 19.59 swing low support by closing at 20.10. Gold closed up $11.20 to $1108.40 and oil down $1.83 to $78.17 a barrel.
Big weakness persist through the opening and into 1:30 on the day, sitting on the lows of the day for 3 hours. With market breadth that was pointing to a trend day. However, with the futures market hitting 38.2% Fibonacci support and holding it the bulls kept trying and finally built enough steam to get some upside excitement started. Which came in fast and furious in the last hour. It wasn’t the easiest day to buy into a reversal day with breadth as heavy as it was but it does show us the market is sticking to the range and on a daily charts looks like we’ve done nothing all week.
Leading us into Friday’s GDP in the pre market and data until 10 will release. The week has held in a tiny range relative to last weeks and it is still an inside bar on the week. Thursday closed the indexes just under last weeks highs, which is where we will look to break Friday and see the market move up for continuation. If the data comes in week it may knock the bulls off their feet again like we saw on Tuesday off the Consumer Confidence. The market has lacked follow through and conviction this week, after we see Friday’s first hour we will have a better idea as to how much range extension we get. The range may narrow after that first hour and just try to close the week quietly. It has been a rocky week so some gains scratched out maybe all we can expect. The 61.8% fib resistance, last weeks highs and 50dma’s still converge just over us for resistance to clear.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Prelim GDP, 8:30 Prelim GDP Price Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Existing Home Sales. Monday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices. Tuesday Vehicle Sales all day. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Beige Book. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Revised Nonfarm Productivity, 8:30 Revised Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings. 3:00 Consumer Credit.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market BIOS, FRO, GAS, TTI and after the bell AES. Monday pre market AIG, EP, OSG, and after the bell MBI, NTRI. Tuesday pre market AZO, SPLS, UNFI and after the bell BGFV, EGLE, HOV, PDLI, PAY. Wednesday pre market BIG, BJ, COST, JOYG, and after the bell CRA, FL, NGS, PETM, SIA, VM, VOLC. Thursday pre market ARIA, ATPG, BABY, OSTK, STP, URBN, WEN and after the bell COO, DDS, BOOM, IDSY, MRVL, SMTC, SPWRA. Friday pre market SOLF and after the bell LMIA.
