Thursday moved the market in a very narrow range and left the broader markets still holding the weeks range. Possibly forming a bull flag with this consolidation to move higher and get a look at the January highs. Volume for the NYSE was equal to Wednesdays and the Nasdaq was significantly lower on the day. Futures were also much lighter than Wednesdays volume. The TRIN closed at .82 bullish on the day and the VIX at 18.72. Gold closed at $1133.70 down $9.60 an ounce and oil closed down 66 cents to $80.21 a barrel.
The market hit the pause button on us so far this week, we usually see this as a digestive move awaiting news or a news event. The Job’s report does provide a possible catalyst but all the talk about it this week with weather and every other excuse makes poor data expected now. If the data is even sort of good the market could find some buying as a relief move. The volume has been incredibly light so any move up without it at this point would likely be temporary and very suspect.
The weeks high needs to open the door for the bulls and failure there is likely to result in a quick pullback. The markets have knocked on the door all week and so far nothing is pushing through it. Good data may allow for a gap up to clear the resistance and see continuation of this move. Don’t step in real quick to short a gap up on Friday. The market has had a lot of rest at this level and just needs a push to start, a gap maybe that fuel for the fire.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings. 3:00 Consumer Credit. Monday nothing due out. Tuesday 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Wednesday 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance. Thursday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market SOLF and after the bell nothing due. Monday pre market BPZ, and after the bell NCTY, TIVO. Tuesday pre market DKS, KR, NXG and after the bell JCG. Wednesday pre market AEO, PLCE, QLTI, and after the bell BLDP, FCEL, GYMB, HOTT, IPAR, JAS, MW, SMTC, WES. Thursday pre market ARIA, IMAX, NGPC, NPSP, GASS, and after the bell GG, NABI, NSM, PSUN, SEAC, SHFL, ZUMZ. Friday pre market ANN, KIRK, PEI and nothing after the bell.
NDX (Nasdaq 100) closed +8.15 at 1859.72. Support: 1831.50, 1805.44, 1770.09. Resistance: 1873.47, 1897.49 1/11 swing high-1901.97, 1947.70
