Friday left the market with a modest win on the NDX, COMPX, and SPX and a tiny loss on the Dow. All the broader indexes closed just off the highs after a very weak start in the deep red. Volume increased to close the month on the NYSE, Nasdaq and futures. The TRIN closed at 1.19 and the VIX at 23.50 on the days low, just on the 200dma. Gold closed up $13.20 to $1182.20 and oil up 69 cents to $79.05 a barrel.
The Nas Composite and S&P 500 sit just under the 200dma, NDX and Dow are still holding over that key moving average. The Nas composite, Nas 100 and S&P 500 closed just points below June’s close and the Dow closed just points over June’s close. July left the indexes with a spinning top and a much smaller range than June delivered. With the week ahead filled with economic data that will be the fuel for the market. We still have a lot of earnings flowing out as well.
Futures did test the weekly pivots last week but in the second half of the week. Daily tested everyday excluding Monday, so it was a good week for that. The ES over 1110.75 we look for 1118.75 last week high and under 1088.50 we look for 1077.75. The NQ over 1884.50 we look for 1900.75 and under 1847.5 we look for 1831.50 to test.
Historically the first day of August is red, the first 9 days of August are also historically weak. However, I think we see a strong start on the day because the market seemed to be finding buyers in any dip not sellers on each pop last week. The weak opening Friday’s getting bought leaves me to look to see if the market can hold and climb from here. So we’ll watch the levels above and let the market set the tone for us.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, 10:15 Fed Chairman Bernanke to speak, 4:00 Geithner Speaks. Tuesday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Factory Orders, Vehicle sales all day. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 3:00 Consumer Credit.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market AGN, CLX, NS, and after the bell MSTR, PFG, VRSN, VMC. Tuesday pre market ADM, COH, DHI, DUK, MRO, MMC, MA, MGM, NYX, OSG, PFE, PG, THC, YRCW and after the bell APC, BBOX, CRA, ERTS, JCOM, NATL, PCLN, TRLG, UTI, WFMI, WMS, XL. Wednesday pre market AGU, CAM, LSE, DVN, GRMN, ICE, PHM, Q, and after the bell NDN, ALL, ATML, CECO, IPI, MUR, ONNN, PACR, PRU, SINA, RIG. Thursday pre market ATPG, BZH, BCRX, CAH, CBOE, CI, FTO, LIZ, ZEUS, OMG, OCR, and after the bell NILE, CF, CROX, EOG, HANS, MCHP. Friday pre market AES, AIG, DYN, and nothing after the bell.
