Friday found a very strong Nas 100 and Nas Composite and a little weaker S&P 500 and a much weaker Dow. The NDX closed +2.10%, COMPX +1.37%, SPX +.20, RUT -.21% and Dow -.28% on the day. Volume increased for option expiration and came in higher on the day. The TRIN closed at 1.22 and the VIX at 19.03 on the lows of the day. Gold closed at $1371.50 on the day and oil at $81.80 both falling on the day.
The week closed on the highs for all the indexes, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) closed at new highs on the year, the Dow is not far from the years highs. This advance took the weekly charts outside the upper Bollinger band, stochastics over 90 and the RSI along with the CCI are still lower and not into overbought areas. The daily chart on the COMPX and NDX are through the upper BB, RSI is over 75, CCI +200 and stochastics are into the 90’s. Both left hanging men on the daily charts, which can be a reversal candle is confirmed with a lower close on volume into Monday. The SPX daily chart the stochastics have already turned down, CCI is 100, RSI 68 and Friday was in range with the prior two days. The Dow stayed in the same range with the prior two days and left a spinning top on the day, stochastics are turning down, RSI 67, CCI 98. Leaving the SPX and Dow not as strong as the Nasdaq indexes due to the lag in financials.
The Hardware (HWI) sector took out the years highs on Friday, the SOX sits under key resistance at 357.07, and internets are just under the years highs. All three sectors are overbought on last weeks lift. Banks are on 44.91 support with 43.94 just below that. Brokers didn’t fall as much as banks last week but they are still significantly different than the tech side of the market. 103.58 is the support on brokers to watch and resistance at 107.82. Two other key sectors to watch would be healthcare (HMO) which sets at new highs on the year and with divergence on the daily chart, telecom (XTC) made new highs on the year 2 weeks ago but still sit just off that level and sitting with indecision.
Futures did test the weekly pivots last year and only the NQ broke the weeks range on Friday. The NQ took off running and didn’t look back from the Google report igniting the market. The ES has 1160.25 support to stay over to continue higher, NQ 2062 and the TF 692.60 support. With the Nasdaq so far ahead of the other indexes and being overbought along with the overbought condition of the key Nasdaq sectors we can look for some pullback early Monday. Usually we would look for a digestive tone on the day after such a move like the NQ had on Friday and following option expiration that also usually brings a quiet day. The upcoming week will have a TON of earnings in most sectors and that will help to create a lot of movement this week and determine if this Nasdaq is done or just in need of a small correction to refuel and carry every index along with it.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index. Tuesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Housing Starts, 10:00 FOMC Member Dudley Speaks, 7:00 FOMC Member Duke Speaks. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Beige Book. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 2:00 FOMC Member Bullard Speaks. Friday G20 meeting starts. Saturday G20 Meetings Day 2
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market C, HAL, HAS, MMR, EDU and after the bell AAPL, IBM, LNCR, PKG, VMW, ZION. Tuesday pre market BAC, BK, KO, EMC, FRX, GS, HOG, JNJ, LMT, NYT, OXY, OMC, PH, BTU, STT, UNH and after the bell GILD, ISRG, JNPR, SLM, SONC, SYK, TUP, WCN, YHOO. Wednesday pre market ABT, MO, ATMI, BA, CMA, DAL, GENZ, GAP, MS, TIN, UTX, LCC, USB, WFC and after the bell AMLN, ETFC, EBAY, ISIL, NFLX, NE, NVEC, SCHN, XLNX. Thursday pre market FLWS, ALK, T, BG, CAT, CRUS, CAL, CY, LLY, FITB, FCX, JBLU, MCD, MNRO, NUE, PENN, POOL, RS, R, LUV, TRV, UNP, UAL, UPS, XRX and after the bell AMZN, AXP, AMGN, BIDU, CA, COF, CAKE, CMG, LSCC, NCR, PMCS, QLGC, RMBS, SNDK, SYNA. Friday pre market HON, IR, KEY, ERIC, SLB, VZ and nothing after the bell.
