Monday started the week with a modest loss across the broader markets with the NDX off -.63%, SPX -.56%, COMPX -.48%, Dow -.44% and RUT -.40% on the day. Volume fell harder than the market did with Monday being the weakest of the last 5 days. Leaving Monday to be a very digestive narrow range day on the broader markets. The TRIN closed on the highs at 1.23 bearish and the VIX at 22.54. Gold also in a tiny range to close up 10 cents at $1298.20 and oil up 3 cents to $76.52 a barrel.
The indexes traded through Friday’s high at 2:20 and just could not hold the momentum to find buyers. The tiny range didn’t help the momentum rotate over the hill for a run. The market pulled back very slowly until the final 30 minutes which accelerated to new lows. After the bell RIMM (Research in Motion) announced the introduction of the Blackberry Playbook, the stock traded higher and futures saw a little wiggle. Monday’s light volume pullback is the best thing the bulls can hope for, we sell off on heavy volume we would worry about that. Light volume is nothing more than digestive and a normal retracement.
Into Tuesday look for the range to expand and give us a nice move. The market retraced 61.8% of Friday’s move, that is a healthy pullback. However we still have Friday’s big gap mixed in there and is a lift mixed in with Friday’s big move. ES look for 1134.50 we drop that we will look into 1128 and onto the gap at 1120.50. ES back through 1145.25 we can look for 1151.25 and onto 1155.50. Nq has 2002 support then 1988.50 and onto the gap 1981.25 gap. NQ back over 2014.50 and onto 2021.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 9:00 S&P/CS Composite 20 HPI, 10:00 CB Consumer Confidence, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 1:15 FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Final GDP, 8:30 Final GDP Price Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 FOMC Member Dudley Speaks, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, Total Vehicle Sales All day.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market AZO, CCL, and after the bell ADBE, DRI. Wednesday pre market GIS, JEF and after the bell BBBY, SCS. Thursday pre market RAD, SCHL, TXI and after the bell FINL, NKE, SABA, TIBX. Friday pre market KBH and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday’s pivot 1140, weekly pivot 1134.75. Intraday support: 1134.50, 1128, 1123.25, 1120.50 fills gap, 1117.25. Resistance: 1141.75-1143-1145.25, 1151.25, 1155.50, 1160.50, 1169.75
