Thursday closed the day to the downside with the NDX off -1.22%, COMPX -1.06 %, RUT -.84%, SPX -.76 % and Dow -.73% on the day. The volume was down today making for another day of diminishing participation. The days drop erased most of yesterday’s gains in a slow motion retracement. The TRIN closed at 1.80 bearish on the day and the VIX at 27.37. Gold closed flat on the day at $1241.30 and oil up 84 cents to $73.36 a barrel.
The day started out looking bullish and strong over Wednesday’s high. But after that first hour the bulls started to walk away and let the market sink slowly. The first hours volume was light and didn’t really impress the bulls with any strength to stay around. Breaking back through Wednesday’s high and retracing into 78.6% fib support doesn’t look great for the market. That leaves Wednesday as a one day wonder basically and now the volume is even lighter. We can expect Friday to just try to keep the support intact below us. The Nas composite fell into 2113.88 78.6% fib support, NDX 1764.13 70.7%, SPX 1045.56 70.7%, and the Dow 10036 61.8% fib support. I don’t look at 70.7% as a key fib level, so the SPX and the NDX can still move onto 78.6% 1036.23 SPX and 1746.85 78.6% as key levels. If we drop there it is likely to accelerate to the downside and end Friday on a REAL red note, which would also end the week on a negative tone. Data isn’t likely to be real upbeat, but Bernanke could stop the bleeding from negative data when he speaks at 10.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Prelim GDP, 8:30 Prelim GDP Price Index, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market FRO, TIF and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Friday’s pivot 1049.50, weekly pivot 1077. Intraday support: 1042, 1038-1037, 1030.50-1029.50 78.6% on daily, 1024.25 Resistance: 1049.50, 1053.75, 1056.50, 1060.50 38.2%, 1065.50 fills gap-1067.75, 1075, 1080.50
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Friday’s pivot 1777.25, weekly pivot 1829.75. Support: 1765.25, 1758.50, 1750.50, 1747, 1744.75, 1736.50. Resistance: 1778.75, 1782.75, 1787, 1793, 1798, 1804.75, 1809.50 fills gap-1810.25, 1818, 1822.50-1824.75
TF (Russell 2000 e-mini) Friday’s pivot 602.50, weekly pivot 614.40. Support: 596.10, 593.90, 592, 590.70, 589.70, 586.70, 584.80, 583.50, 581.60, 575.10. Resistance: 602.60, 604.30, 605.90, 607.20, 608.30, 611.20, 612.90, 615.20.
