Thursday another modest win for the bulls, volume did participate today for accumulation days. The first hour sold off and fell through Wednesday’s lows only to see the market rebounding and pulling in more dip buyers. The range is still narrow and in range, so we are stuck! The VIX closed at 24.68 and the TRIN at .49 bullish. Gold moved higher by $1.60 $947.40 an ounce and oil rallied when the market reversed to close up $1.08 at $72.51 a barrel.
The day closed with hanging men candles, they are a bearish candle. Even though that seem counterintuitive to what you think when you see the market push off the lows. However when it is in a trending market on the highs, it is bearish. The CCI dropped on each daily index despite the market closing higher for divergence, RSI is still flat, stochastics are still closed but no cross down sitting sideways and the MACD is a flat line as well. The market is still sitting in the range we’ve been in since last Friday. Going up a little and down a little intraday is like being a teeter totter, eventually an imbalance moves everything. If you are on the teeter totter you hope you aren’t the one that gets slammed down and even the one on top flying off has some risk. The market is much like that, you watch your fingers and toes to avoid anything quick and disorderly. An orderly pullback will eventually come in or we will break the range for the next leg up. That isn’t likely to be as orderly it very well may come in the way of a gap and run kind of day.
Into Friday the day starts early with data and likely to set the tone into the 9:55 data. The market has sold off on good data this week, but only to see support come in and reverse us. Bracketing Thursday’s range is a good place to start to see which direction we move. The day should move early on and is likely to be dull as the day progresses. It is the last Friday of August and now we just have to count down to Labor day. However, I think we start to see some light in the tunnel next week given the busy calendar ahead and the positioning that will start to come in.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:55 Revised UofM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations. Monday 9:45 Chicago PMI, Tuesday 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, Vehicle Sales all day, Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Revised Nonfarm Productivity, 8:30 Revised Unit Labor, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 11:30 FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market TIF and nothing after the bell.
NDX (Nasdaq 100) closed +3.97 at 1640.97. Support: 1620.06, 1598.33, 1582.85, 1555.78 38.2%. Resistance: 1650.60, 1676.12, 1694.79
SPX (S&P 500) closed +2.86 at 1030.98. Support: 1015.12, 1001.14, 991.18, 972.21 38.2%. Resistance: 1042.40, 1070.39, 1096.82, 1121.44 50% on weekly.
