Thursday bar the door Katie! Another red day (yes that makes two) Wednesday’s was modest and Thursday’s a little heavier fall. However, volume was missing on the Thursday’s move down and came in a little lighter on the NYSE and Nasdaq markets. The A/D and U/D lines were not real harsh and really kept the pullback in an orderly move with lower highs throughout the day but with retracement. The TRIN strangely low again today at .61 and after two days of an unusually low TRIN with a red market I have to look at this closely. A low TRIN can mean we are seeing selling volume higher, but the declining shares are being bought (dip buyers). Which really does go along with what we would expect to see, the much awaited dip would bring in buyers and with the shallow pullbacks we’ve seen for weeks this is possibly why that TRIN is holding so low. The other scenario would be the biggest cap stocks are not being sold heavily and offsetting the others that we are getting profit taking in. But either way there is some looming problems with this low TRIN and if it continues to be out of “whack” we’ll really have some concern. Gold closed down $3.00 to $963.30 and oil down 13 cents at $71.84 a barrel.
Into Friday the market will have all eyes on the pre market employment data. Today’s selling could have likely been nervousness ahead of the data, but also we need to pull in. The last two days losses have closed the gap left from July 29th on the Nas 100 and Nas Composite to leave that as a line of support now. The SPX still has July 31st gap at 987.48 and the Dow at 9171.61. All indexes are just dipping into last week’s range, so this pullback isn’t doing any damage or causing any panic. However, job’s data may do that into Friday. The Daily stochastics are now touching and crossing down, CCI is under 100 line support, MACD closed up tight and RSI has dropped back off the overbought levels. The Nasdaq 100 and COMPX was being watched on that 10dma, both broke today to close under those levels. The SPX and Dow pulled onto those levels today.
Any strength should be watched carefully Friday, the last two days changed the tone a little on this market. So a buy and sit is no longer on the table for assuming the buyers take over. We won’t rule it out, because this nervousness off the job’s data will be put to bed tomorrow. So once we see the data we’ll have some clarity. Do keep in mind it is FRIDAY, once we close that first 90 minutes things may get very slow. Another thing to keep in mind is we are back to the pre Lehman failure area (Sept 2008), folks may see this an a cautious sign if the market gives up too much ground here, no one wants to let profits slide back at this point if they’ve been waiting to get EVEN since that time period. The market has to start looking into next week and sitting in range for the afternoon would not surprise me. Wednesday we have FOMC meeting and that will now start to be the markets focus once the Job’s information is behind us.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 3:00 Consumer Credit. Monday nothing due out, Tuesday 8:30 Nonfarm Productivity, 8:30 Prelim Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 TIPP Economic Optimism, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories. Wednesday 8:30 Trade Balance, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, Tentative Fed Credit and Liquidity Report, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance, 2:15 FOMC Statement & Funds Rate. Thursday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Import Prices, 10:00 Business Inventories, 10:30 Natural Gas. Friday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 9:55 Prelim Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim Univ of Mich Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market BECN, CEP, SUP and nothing after the bell. Monday pre market CIT, DYN, PCLN, VM and after the bell CEP, ETP, FLR, QSFT, ZOLT. Tuesday pre market DNDN and after the bell AMAT, PAAS, CLWR. Wednesday pre market LIZ, M, SLE and after the bell NTES, SINA, TIE. Thursday pre market APWR, DPS, KSS, URBN, WMT, and after the bell A, ADSK, BBI, CHINA, DV, JWN, RRGB, SUMT, TSCM. Friday pre market ANF, JCP and nothing after the bell.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed -19.89 at 1973.16. Support: 1953.88, 1918.58, 1901.80 38.2% Resistance: 1985.98, 1997.29, 2005.34, 2013.02, 2063.52 50% on weekly
