Thursday closed the day higher on mixed volume. The NYSE’s volume was lighter and the Nasdaq was heavier volume for an accumulation day. Futures were all lighter with rollover on the day and it was grueling throughout most of the session to even move. The TRIN closed at .85 bullish and the VIX at 22.32. Oil dropped 8 cents to $70.59 a barrel for seven straight sessions of losses and gold broke the four day losing streak to close up $5.50 to $1126.40.
Friday ends the week with a lot of economic data to try to move the market out of range. These narrow range days are definitely wearing thin on the volatility and opportunity. On the daily charts stochastics are pointed down, MACD is very flat, RSI and CCI headed up on the COMPX, NDX, SPX and Dow. Leaving us with some mixed signals and waiting on a break of the 2009 highs or a move down out of range and get a correction. The market has been very content to mark time in range and we could see the year end this way. Next week is quadruple witching so there is still hope the range will let go of us. Also the Santa Claus rally is not out of the picture as we sit just shy of the 2009 highs, which could put us on the rally bus.
In the meantime we have to trade this market as it is delivered each day and that is not easy in the tiny range. It is very important to use discipline and not push trades you THINK will setup. Many sectors that have been strong did give up some ground today with the SOX (semiconductors), INX (internets), HWI (hardware) all closing red, financials still range bound also closed red on the day. Healthcare, Retail, Telecom all held steady to close green with the major indexes. Friday again we’ll watch for telecom (XTC) and the Semi’s (SOX) to show any weakness, if that comes in this resilient Nasdaq is likely to lead us lower. Without that we still look for the 2009 highs to break out and move us higher.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Import Prices, 9:55 Univ Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories. Monday nothing due out. Tuesday 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index. Wednesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Current Account, 8:30 Housing Starts, 10:30 Crude Inventories, 2:15 FOMC Statement and rate. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday nothing due out, quadruple expiration day.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday nothing of interest
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed +7.13 at 2190.86. Support: 2176.04, 2141.76-2140.78 50dma, 2096.90. Resistance: 2201.82, 2214.39 2009 highs, 2267.66, 2294.18-2300.81.
