Thursday closed the market red across the broader markets. The volume was once again split with the NYSE heavier than Wednesday and lighter on the Nasdaq. Futures all came in heavier for a distribution day. The TRIN closed at 2.58 very bearish on the day and the TRIN snapped back to the 10dma to close at 22.51. The U/D line closed on the lows of the day for a really heavy sell off and the A/D line although not on the lows also showed the heavy sell off today. Gold closed down $29.00 to $1107.20 and oil down 7 cents to $72.59 a barrel.
After the bell the market received a lift from RIMM, ORCL in addition NKE and TTWO also traded higher on earnings news. PALM fell on earnings news while pretty much all the other after hours news was upbeat. The late boost kept futures sitting over 61.8% fib support, which was in danger of a break today. However, that little late day boost kept us over support and looking for a bounce into Friday morning. With the ES holding 1092.50-1090.50, NQ 1776.50 and the TF still well over support at 594.5 the market can look for an early lift. Thursday’s drop left us in a fall throughout the day, but the last hour lift helped work off the oversold conditions. The TRIN is still extreme at 2.58 which also leaves us looking for an early bounce. Watch the first hours range carefully to bracket it for a range to setup. It is quadruple witching, that means stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures all expire Friday. The generally had too volume, but can be a bit of a tug of war. Quadruple witching happens four times a year and is usually a busier day than ordinary expiration that takes place the other 8 months out of the year. But because this is also the final Friday for December trading and likely to be the last day of trading for anyone taking the long holiday break, it could be full of surprises for us.
Futures did test the weekly pivot today leaving the support in place off 1092.5-1090.5 for the ES. Look for a move up to 1098.75 early on and any rejection there is likely to let us drop back through Thursday’s low. A move to 1087 will be support to look for under 1092.50. The NQ 1776.50 support and a move back up to 1789 is where we look for a bounce. Any rejection or inability to follow through to the upside at that point we can look for Thursday low and onto 1768.75 to test.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday nothing due out, quadruple expiration day. Monday nothing due out. Tuesday 8:30 Final GDP, 8:30 Final GDP Price Index, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:00 HPI m/m, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index. Wednesday 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, early close 1:15. Friday US markets closed.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market KMX, CCL and nothing after the bell. Monday after the bell JBL. Tuesday pre market PRGS and after the bell FINL, MU, RHT, TIBX. Wednesday pre market AM and nothing after the bell. Thursday nothing pre market and CRI after the bell. Friday US markets are closed.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Friday’s pivot 1784.25 weekly pivot 1787.25. Support: 1776.50, 1773.25, 1768.75, 1765.75, 1762.25, 1756.75 Resistance: 1789, 1793.75, 1800.25, 1805, 1811-1813.25, 1817.50, 1823.50, 1829.50, 1834.50
