Thursday closed the day down after a day of a tight range the last 40 minutes sold off hard. Volume did increase with the drop, after a day of drifting around that last hour was significantly more than we’ve seen in the last hour in weeks. The TRIN closed at 1.33 bearish and that left the A/D and U/D lines closed on the lows in negative territory. The VIX closed at 22.46 just over the 10dma. Gold closed up $5.20 to $1218.20 and oil down 14 cents to $76.46 a barrel.
The daily candlesticks for the COMPX, NDX, SPX and Dow left shooting star candlesticks, taking back the gains from the past two days. A little nervousness ahead of the Job’s data is what we saw in the late day sell off. Indicators on the daily charts all turned down to support the price movement. The semiconductor index was a big bull throughout the day and closed up 2.54 % on the day for a big move and the leader for the day. Banks and brokers were the weak link all day and never helped the SPX advance, just tread water until the drop came in.
Into Friday we are still well off the weeks lows and in the upper half of the weeks range. The fall was enough to wake up the bears, but not enough to throw the bulls out the window. If Friday can close lower the bears will confirm that shooting star on the daily charts. The late day fall left the market oversold on a short term basis, that is only because moving for a very narrow range to expansion on the express train does that. The fall was not as orderly as it could have been and that leaves the market in need of some retracement. The early data is likely to set the days tone and define our direction. If the data comes in as expected we can look for some retracement of this fall and an advance across the market. If the market disappoints the market is likely to fall off and see a much larger drop. The gap from the 30th is still open and will provide support on further downside.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 Factory Orders. Monday 3:00 Consumer Credit. Tuesday 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Wednesday 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance. Friday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Import Prices, 9:55 Univ Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market BIG and after the bell FMCN. Monday pre market GRB, LAYN and after the bell FMCN, PBY. Tuesday pre market AZO, HRB, KR, TLB, TTC and after the bell CKR, MW. Wednesday pre market MOV and after the bell FCEL, LULU. Thursday pre market COST, DG, UNFI and after the bell LTRE, NSM. Friday nothing of interest.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed -11.89 at 2173.14. Support: 2169.76, 2148.77, 2133.82. Resistance: 2205.32 2009 highs, 2267.66, 2294.18-2300.81.
