Thursday closed with a nasty drop, the worst the market has seen in five months. A big distribution day for the NYSE, Nasdaq and futures markets bringing in participation across the board. The TRIN closed at 3.17 and the VIX at 26.08. The A/D and U/D lines were heavy and supporting the trend day lower throughout the day. Gold fell $48.00 to $1064 an ounce and oil down $3.84 to $73.14 a barrel.
Wednesday I was suspect with that high TRIN and the SPX sitting under resistance with a lagging Nasdaq. The cautious tone when things don’t line up in the market usually pays off and this drop was not one to bottom pick on. Heavy selling that left the market short term oversold. With the high TRIN closed (anything over 2 is high) lets us look for an early retracement and for the market to find a range to trade in.
The COMPX has 2088.9, NDX 1704.88, SPX 1055.29-1043, and the Dow 9899.58 and onto 9714.22 for key support below Thursdays close. A gap down would likely exhaust the downside and provide some retracement. If the Job’s data comes in as poorly as expect the market will likely see a kneejerk reaction down. The White House also made a statement about the revisions report, that is NORMAL and expected. It comes out regularly and I am not sure why the White House made a big deal about it because it will probably be a weak revision, but the kneejerk reaction is probably going to be negative. Keep watching for the support and some retracement if we see that market reaction off the Job’s report.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, G7 Meetings, 3:00 Consumer Credit m/m. Saturday G7 meetings continue. Monday nothing due out, Tuesday 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories. Wednesday 8:30 Trade Balance, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance. Thursday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Business Inventories, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market AET, BZH, BRKS, BZH, TSN, WY, YRCW and nothing after the bell. Monday pre market NDAQ, OMC and after the bell ATML, ERTS, ESLR, VECO, VMC. Tuesday pre market AGU, BIIB, BJS, KO, CVH, NYX, TIN, and after the bell BIDU, ULTI, DIS, XL. Wednesday pre market CSC, DF, ICE, MMC, PFCB, S, and after the bell BSX, PACR, PRU. Thursday pre market ECL, EXPE, FLIR, PTEN, PEP, and after the bell NILE, CEPH, CAKE, CMG, LVS, MFE, NVDA, PNRA, VARI. Friday pre market IR, PAS, UPL and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Friday’s pivot 1069, weekly pivot 1079.50. Intraday support: 1058 70%-1057, 1052.50, 1048 78.6%, 1044.75, 1041. Resistance: 1069.50, 1073.50-1075.50 38.2%, 1080.50, 1085.25-1085.75, 1089.25, 1092.75, 1096.50 fills gap, 1101.50
