Thursday closed the day modestly higher on light volume, leaving the hammers from Wednesday with an up day to follow but no volume to confirm them. The mixed tone day left little to be desired and a narrow range in the wake of the bulls searching for buyers. The TRIN closed at .74 and the VIX at 29.79. Gold moved up $6.90 to $916.20 and oil up 18 cents to $60.32 a barrel.
Wednesday left high volume hammers to bring hints to some support for a bounce. Thursday although traded up modestly was nothing more than a narrow range digestive day to let the market rest. Lacking volume didn’t do a lot for confirmation or conviction. Leaving Friday to bring some decision, but a Friday in the summer??? Not real likely to be real convincing of much. The SPX sits on the neckline of the head and shoulders with the Dow slightly under the neckline still. Nas Composite and Nas 100 still sit under the 50dma after this drop early in the week. Thursday left the indexes at about 50% of the weeks range, right in the neutral zone.
65 minute chart on the broader markets still tilting some for a little weight on the long winding day in range. That is what happens when the range is narrow and so digestive all day long. Something has to spark a move and if nothing does the direction tends to start leaning in that of the prior days. Which has been down this week. Moving into 50% of the weeks range was key and we didn’t hold it well. The Es and NQ moved into 61.8% 884.5 and 1422.5 on the NQ and fell off. Those will remain key spot to seeing any further retracements this week. 869.25 is nice support on the ES and NQ is down at 1398.5. Friday is likely to see an early retracement and find a range to sit through the afternoon. It isn’t likely to be real exciting after we get into lunch ahead of next week big earnings and on a summer Friday folks tend to take it easy late day on Friday’s.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Import Prices, 9:55 Prelim Univ Of Michigan Sentiment. Monday 2:00 Federal Budget Balance, Tuesday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Core PPI, 10:00 Business Inventories, 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Wednesday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes, Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas, Friday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Housing Starts, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market PGR and nothing after the bell. Monday pre market SCHW, FAST and after the bell CSX, NVLS. Tuesday pre market GS, JNJ, MTB and after the bell ADTN, INTC, YUM. Wednesday pre market ABT, TXI, and after the bell JBHT, XLNX. Thursday pre market BIIB, CY, FCS, JPM, MBFI, NOK, PII and after the bell ESLR, GOOG, IBM, PMCS. Friday pre market BAC, C, GE, MAT, WBS and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Friday’s pivot 879.25, weekly pivot 904.75, monthly pivot 918. Intraday support: 877, 872.75 neckline, 869.25, 865.25, 860, 857, 850.25, 841.75 38.2%. Resistance: 884.50, 889.25-889.50, 891.25, 896.25-896.75, 904.25.
