Thursday brought the market a nice gain across the broader markets on lighter volume. Tuesday volume peaked and has dropped off slowly since, very strong market breadth but not with heavy volume. The TRIN closed at .15 the lowest of the year and very bullish. The VIX closed with a spinning top at 30.57. Oil closed up $1.10 to $75.48 a barrel and gold down $5.70 to $1224.20 an ounce.
The markets erased most of the weeks losses with today’s gains. We are still just under Monday’s highs and have the 200dma overhead on the Nas Composite. The Nas 100 closed just over the 200dma. The market has to get into new highs for the rally to have any staying power. Follow through has been extremely sketchy and until we see it, we just have to sit on ice and take each day as it unfolds. The CCI, stochastics, RSI and MACD are all turned up now but has some steep resistance to climb still.
The market is likely to pullback early Friday. The early data could set the tone for the day, it is our biggest day of the week for data. Futures had a pretty choppy Thursday rollover, particularly the ES. None were smooth but the ES certainly the most range bound and difficult to get in motion for long. That is rollover for us and a digestive day with a gap that held. Leaves us to look for the pullback early and as long as Thursday’s low holds we have a good shot at the highs and onto Monday’s highs for continuation. Over 1087 is key on the ES and holding over 1065.75 is key support.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday nothing due out.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed +59.86 at 2218.71. Support: 2176.26, 2140.53, 2104.82-2100.17. Resistance: 2223.76-2237.78 200dma, 2271.64, 2291.32, 2337.91
