Thursday makes nine days in this range, certainly wound tightly here in this channel. Another late day failure to break out and we sold off back near the days lows. Volume was split with the Nasdaq slightly lighter than Wednesday’s and the NYSE heavier. Futures had rollover so it isn’t a good comparison to prior days but the volume was very good and in-line with yesterdays when you take June and September’s numbers. Gold closed up $6.80 at $961.50 an ounce and oil also closed up $1.27 to $72.60 a barrel. The TRIN closed at .74 and the VIX at 28.11 in a very small range throughout the day. The U/D and the A/D stayed strong throughout the day even with the late day drop, which is different tone than we’ve seen while sitting in this range. The bulls didn’t walk away, but they didn’t have enough strength to continue or participation to power us higher.
Into Friday we’ll close the week out and after 2 weeks in this range, we are ready for a move. Thinking Friday can pull off anything with sustainability is probably not a good idea. Indicators are winding tightly and still starting to point down, but until this channel lets us break out or down we are STUCK. I’m also weary of holding into the weekend with a market this range bound. Waking up to a move out of this range would be surprising tomorrow, but that wouldn’t be a surprise on Monday. Looking for the channel to break is like waiting for water to boil, it happens when it happens. The 9:55 data does have the ability to move the market and we will patiently wait for this channel to get us out of this area and move along.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Import Prices, 9:55 Univ Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Univ Of Michigan Inflation Expectations. Saturday G8 Meetings, Monday 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:00 Tic Long Term Purchases, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index, Tuesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Housing Starts, 8:30 PPI, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, Wednesday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Current Account, 10:30 Current Account, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 12:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas, Friday nothing due out but its Quadruple witching expiration day
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday nothing due out, Monday nothing pre mkt and after the bell LZB. Tuesday pre market BBY, SFD and after the bell ADBE, NCTY. Wednesday pre market ATU, FDX and after the bell HIS. Thursday pre market CCL, SJM, PRGS, WGO, and after the bell RIMM, SGK, SWHC. Friday pre market KMX and after the bell nothing do out.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Friday’s pivot 1496.50, weekly pivot 1479.25, monthly 1405.50. Support: 1487, 1483.75, 1480.50, 1477.25, 1472.50, 1466.25, 1462, 1458.50, 1447.50. Resistance: 1497.25, 1500, 1506.50, 1511.25, 1514.75, 1518, 1530.25
