Thursday, who called the bulls racing team? The day ended green with a close on the highs across the broader markets on higher volume. Volume continued to roll in throughout the day for a steady pace and good participation as the market winds into the end of June. The VIX to a new low on the year and a new closing low as well at 26.36, showing a lack of fear in this market and very complacent. That is the quiet before the storm. The TRIN stayed much higher on the day until that last half hour and it finally dropped to .51 after spending much of the day .75ish area. It never showed a great deal of pressure, steady bullish activity but not extreme. A/D and U/D ended the day strong on the highs after a steady climb all day. Gold closed the day up $5.10 at $939.50 and oil up $1.48 to $70.15 a barrel.
The day started at one end and closed at the other end for a nice marubozu candle on the day. That is a strong candle and takes any indecision out of the picture. Now Friday needs to show us another day of continuation to really shut down the indecision and not leave us with a one day wonder of bulls running amuck. The fall from June 11th down to the lows on the 23rd let the market see some retracement after the lift off the March 9th lows. The Nas Composite and Nas 100 left the day at 61.8% fib resistance on that drop, S&P 500 is just under 50% on that drop and the Dow just under 38.2% of the drop. Leaving the RSI moving up, CCI just under 0 line , stochastics trying to cross up and the MACD still pointed down but trying to close up and put a lid on the downside. The Nasdaq is green for the month after this lift, leaving the SPX and Dow still red, but much improved after this lift today.
Into Friday early data and news into 10 will have the market looking for good news. Wednesday’s New Homes, Thursday’s Unemployment data were both bad news and the market lifted on both. So we are seeing the buy bad news phase of things, not something you can make a lot of sense of and it happens to be part of the market that remains a mystery to most. However, focus on the news tomorrow to see where we sit and what we hear early but probably more of a focus will be the 9:55 Consumer Sentiment. I expect some retracement in the market and to test a new high (over Thursday’s) to get things moving. The range is not likely to be expanded, more likely to be digestive relative to what Thursday delivered. Letting the market rest and work off this move would be healthy and get the market into next week with some gains. Tuesday ends June so there is still time to move and retest the June highs if this bullish tone continues. A weak start tomorrow could hold the market for that first half hour in a very small range and keep us from doing a lot. The daily pivots did test and the Nasdaq (NQ) weekly did get a look as well. The ES stayed 1 tick off the weekly so things did get a nice test and in order to see Friday’s daily pivot we would need to see a 38.2% retracement across the board.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Core PCE Price index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, Monday nothing due out, Tuesday 9:00 S&P/CS Composite 20 HPI, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 10:00 Consumer Confidence, Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 11:15 FOMC Member Evans Speaks, All day vehicle sales, Thursday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday US Market closed.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market AZZ, KBH and nothing after the bell. Monday after the bell APOL, HRB, Tuesday pre market SCHN and after the bell ZZ, NCTY, Wednesday pre market GIS, UNF, STZ and after the bell DMAN, Thursday pre market MEI, MSM and nothing after the bell. Friday US markets are closed.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Friday’s pivot 908.50, weekly pivot 918, monthly pivot 904.50. Intraday support: 907.75, 904.75, 901.50, 899.25, 897, 891.25, 890 fills gap. Resistance: 918.50-919.75, 923, 926.50 61.8%, 931.50-932.75, 938 78.6%, 941 fills 6/12 gap.
