Thursday closed the day higher making 10 of the last 11 days with higher closes for the broader markets. The volume was incredibly light today so once again we lift on light volume. The participation is just not hitting on all cylinders for this market still. The Nasdaq continues to march higher with new 52 week highs, the SPX had a new closing high on the year, but not all time high. The TRIN closed at .47 very bullish and the VIX at 18.06 on the lows. Gold closed unchanged at $1108.10 on the day and oil up 2 cents to $82.11.
The market is still overbought despite the attempt to pullback the bears were still not able to get the market moving. Friday will start the day with early data and likely provide an early move off the opening. The first hour will be used to find a range for us and then we’ll bracket it, any break of that hour is likely to be the direction of the day. After two weeks of a huge advance the day may sit in range and do little or make people nervous enough to take some off the table.
Futures did not test the weekly pivot last week and so far they have not this week, at this point it would result in a huge fall to see that happen on Friday. I am not expecting that much of a drop, so that will leave us with two weeks outside the norm. Unusual to say the least, making new highs brings in hysteria and we see unusual things. I don’t expect the narrow ranges to continue and then the market accelerate like we’ve seen this week. So bare with the conditions and don’t overtrade in the meantime.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories. Monday 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index. Tuesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Housing Starts, 8:30 Import Prices, 2:15 FOMC Statement, 2:15 Federal Funds Rate. Wednesday 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Current Account, 9:30 FOMC Member Hoenig Speaks, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 12:30 FOMC Member Duke Speaks. Friday nothing due out
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market ANN, KIRK, PEI and nothing after the bell. Monday pre market BPZ, OSTK and after the bell ESC, SQNM. Tuesday pre market ARIA, DSW, and after the bell DFS, SGK. Wednesday pre market GIS, SMTS and after bell MLHR, HIS, NKE. Thursday pre market BKS, FDX, GME, LDK, ROST, WGO and after the bell COMS, PALM. Friday pre market PERY and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Friday’s pivot 1142.25, weekly pivot 1126.50. Intraday support: 1141.50, 1138.50, 1134, 1132.75, 1129.25, 1121 38.2%, 1117.50 fills gap, 1113, 1105.25, 1098.50 fills gap, 1094. Resistance: 1148.25, 1151, 1154, 1159.50, 1166.25, 1170.75, 1175.75