Thursday ended the day for the broader markets on the highs and with a big advance on the day. Volume came in under Wednesday’s giving the market another winning day on lighter volume. The TRIN closed at .81, which came off bearish levels all day to close bullish. The VIX closed at 25.43, for the fourth consecutive day of lower closes. Gold closed up $2.20 to $1089.50 and oil down 74 cents to $79.66 a barrel.
Thursday reacted positively from the early data leaving the bulls in charge throughout the day and closing the market on the highs. Very bullish close, but without the volume to back it up, it is suspect. The market was seeing some sideline action with the lack of participation, but enough to know the majority are expected good news on the jobs data. The Jobs data is out Friday morning and next to anything the Fed can say, this is the biggest piece of data we get. Right now it is thought to be improving, if that isn’t the case the market will sink quickly. If the data comes in healthy and gives the market what it expects we should see a multiday rally.
The ES break of 1053.75 and the NQ 1669.50 cleared the way for futures to move higher. The next big level on the ES is at 1071 and NQ at 1730. Good news is likely to gap us over those levels and onto 1083 and 1751.75 levels. Data comes in poorly a move back under 1049.5 on the ES and 1684.5 on the NQ is likely to come very quickly. The ES and NQ 60 minute do have nice looking inverted head and shoulders, that leaves the bulls in charge. The ES measured move would be about 33 points up to 1095 and the NQ 72 points to 1794 to complete the patterns.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 9:45 FOMC Member Evans speaks, 10:00 Wholesale inventories, 3:00 Consumer Credit, 3:00 FOMC Member Duke Speaks. Monday nothing due out, Tuesday 10:00 TIPP Economic Optimism, Wednesday US Bank Holiday (Veterans day), Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance, Friday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Import Prices, 9:55 UoM consumer Sentiment, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:30 FOMC Member Evans Speaks
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market LPNT, SEP, SUP and after the bell AES.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Friday’s pivot 1059, weekly pivot 1050. Intraday support: 1055.50, 1049.50, 1045, 1040.50, 1037, 1034-1032.75, 1026, 1020, 1017.25-1016.50, 1006, 1003.50. Resistance: 1064 10/29 swing high, 1070.75, 1077.25, 1083, 1087, 1093, 1098.50
