Thursday closed the day green, erasing most of yesterdays drop. The volume was lighter then Wednesdays on the NYSE, Nasdaq, and futures (except the NQ was slightly higher). The TRIN closed bullish at .72 and the VIX at 20.69. A/D and U/D closed near the highs on the day, was a big turn off the lows to have this green close. Gold fell $6.30 to $1058.20 and oil down 17 cents to $81.20 a barrel.
Into Friday the economic data along with Fed Chairman Bernanke will be in the mix of earnings. Earnings were pretty upbeat all week and now we’ll hear from widely held Microsoft as the last big stock of the week. The strong close kept the market waiting for a rush at the bell, but that didn’t come. It was a close on the highs and certainly within striking distance of the Wednesday highs. Wednesday had left a shooting star that we were waiting for confirmation of to sell, but that didn’t happen, the higher close made that invalid as a reversal signal. The RSI turned up on the daily charts on each index, but the CCI moved lower on the day despite the days higher close for some divergence. Stochastics are still open to the downside and the MACD is very flat, with no clear direction or signals there. The new highs for the year were put on this week and just overhead, any end of week rally would leave this market in a very bullish place. The Dow teetering around 10,000, SPX 1100, COMPX 2200 and 1800 on the NDX would set the tone going into month end next week to clear each of those psychological areas. They all happen to be within reach now and until we see continuation this range is our playground.
Into Friday a weak close, if it is off bad data or earnings, may sell us back to the lows on the week. Any good news is likely to help hold the weeks gains and keep the market in the upper end of the weeks range. I don’t think Microsoft will disappoint, but the Fed Chairman could say ANYTHING to make the market move. So we’ll have to be tuned in for him early.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 11:30 FOMC Member Kohn speaks. Monday nothing due out, Tuesday 4:30 am Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks, 10:00 Consumer Confidence, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index, Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, Thursday 8:30 Advance GDP, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Advance GDP Price, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market HON, IR, MSFT, SLB, WHR, and nothing after the bell. Monday pre market GLW, SOHU, VZ and after the bell BIDU, CF, CHK, MAS, MTH, WINN, ZRAN. Tuesday pre market AKS, BJS, BP, IACI, LLL, OSIS, PCAR, SCHN, TUES, X, UA, VLO, V, and after the bell ADVS, APOL, BBOX, CEPH, DWA, ETFC, MEE, NSC, PNRA, PDLI, SUNH, TZOO, ULTI. Wednesday pre market ASH, COP, GD, HES, IP, LVLT, MSO, Q, SAP, SEPR, WLP, and after the bell AEM, AKAM, CTX, XRAY, ESRX, FSLR, JDSU, LSI, OII, PACR, RYL, VARI, XL. Thursday pre market AGN, AEP, BCRX, CME, COCO, XOM, K, MGM, MOT, MYL, NEM, ODP, ZEUS, PDE, PG, S, TSM, ZLC and after the bell ADPT, ACS, ATML, DLLR, ERES, KLAC, MXIM, MFE, MET, MSTR, RNWK, SPF, TSRA, USTR, VAR, VSEA, WYNN. Friday pre market CVX, CVH, D, DUK, NYX, SNE, UPL, WY, YRCW and after the bell SHPGY.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Friday’s pivot 1084.50, weekly pivot 1080.25. Intraday support: 1083.75, 1078.50, 1075, 1070.25, 1068.75 fills gap, 1066.50 38.2%, 1063, 1056.75, 1053.50 fills gap 10/7, 1047, 1042.50. Resistance: 1092.50, 1095.75, 1098.50, 1101.25, 1107.75, 1113.25, 1116.
