Thursday brought us a very narrow range day with the NDX closing up +.25%, COMPX +.12%, RUT-.16%, SPX-.16%, and the Dow -.17%. Volume dropped with the range holding tight to leave the NYSE and Nasdaq lighter than Wednesday. The ES and TF were slightly higher volume and the NQ lower, they all had a lot of on again and off again spikes. The NQ was lighter because it was an inside day, the other two were not. The TRIN closed at 1.17 and the VIX at 21.56. Gold fell $11.82 to $1335.90 and oil down $1.56 to $81.67 a barrel.
The Dow sat just 1.47 off 11,000 still closing with a spinning top. The SPX still sits in the weeks range just off the highs with another spinning top. The NDX left an inside day, but the COMPX traded just pennies under yesterdays low to close back in range. The SPX and Dow were the stronger indexes yesterday and today they flipped to weaker. Leaving the NDX and COMPX as the stronger indexes but still no real conviction as we sit under resistance. The Nas Composite has 2396.36 and onto 2433.81 a key area to get over. The Nas 100 (NDX) 2059.42 as the years highs and key resistance. S&P 500 (SPX) 1158.60 and onto 1175.10 as the spots to test. The Dow has 10996.70-11000 just overhead and then not a lot until 11258.01.
The NQ has 2000.50 as a key level and then 1985.50 for supports. The ES has 1152.25 and 1146.5 as key levels of support below us. A move over 1160.50 would open the door to 1176.25. For the NQ over 2017.50 and onto 2025 will be where we need to head for the bulls to have a successful run. The after hours news on Alcoa (AA) traded up after hours +2.6% and MU traded down about -1.3%. AA impacts the SPX and Dow, while MU will impact the NDX. Tech needs good news to run and Micron did not deliver it with the big miss on EPS and revenue. Alcoa was strong but the conference call was still questioning if the sector has bottomed and if improvement is around the corner. That is a concern and if that Job’s data tomorrow morning in the pre market come in weak or worse than expected, the earnings and data could provide a catalyst for a selling party.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, Day 1 of 2 for IMF Meetings. Monday US bank holiday, bonds are closed. Tuesday 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday nothing due out. Monday nothing pre market and after the bell GPN. Tuesday pre market CNM, FAST and after the bell ADTN, CSX, INTC, LLTC. Wednesday pre market ASML, DPZ, JPM and after the bell APOL. Thursday pre market FCS, MTG, PGR, WGO and after the bell AMD, GOOG, JBHT, NARA. Friday pre market SCHW, GE, INFY, MAT and after the bell WDFC.
