Thursday a narrow range day fell early in the day, but recovered to mid level by days end. A slightly red close on the indexes and volume for the NYSE and Nasdaq fell off. Futures saw an increase in volume on the ES, NQ and the ER was down slightly from yesterdays. Overall it was just a digestive day on the market. The VIX closed at 23.62, just 7 cents under yesterday’s close, quiet day there too. The TRIN closed at 1.19, not real bearish but over 1.00 so some bearish tone in there. Gold fell $6.70 to $1013.50 and oil down 7 cents to $72.14 a barrel.
Pretty quiet close on the day left us sitting neutral. The opening did complete the ABC pattern on the 60 minute charts that I wrote about last night. C leg did get a spike off the economic data, but we pulled in and now sit neutral. So ABC’s can retest that high or see a lower high, that is what we look for into Friday. Lower high would be my preference to see us pullback through today’s low and get us into 38.2% support. But because it is quadruple witching the may maybe a little abnormal. So give it time to show us something and tip the scale. IF we break Thursday’s highs, we are more likely to see 5 waves, not just the 3 from the ABC pattern. Which leaves Thursday’s high as key for us to watch and look at carefully to stay out of the way of the run-away train. Usually expiration day is a tug of war, decent volume but no range. So we maybe on ice for movement until next week. We have a Fed meeting next week the market will start thinking about now too.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday nothing due out but it is quadruple witching expiration. Monday 10:00 CB Leading Index, Tuesday 10:00 HPI, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:15 FOMC Statement, 2:15 Federal Funds Rate. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Day 1 G20 meeting. Friday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 9:55 Revised Univ Of Michigan, 9:55 Univ Of Mich Consumer Sentiment, 10:00 New Home Sales, Day 2 G20 meeting.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday nothing due. Monday pre market LEN, SCHL, WAG, and after the bell SNX. Tuesday pre market KMX, CCL, FDS and after the bell AIR. Wednesday pre market AZO, GIS, and after the bell BBBY, PAYX, RHT. Thursday pre market AM, RAD, SCS, TXI and after the bell COMS, FINL, RIMM. Friday pre market KBH and nothing after the bell.
SPX (S&P 500) closed -3.27 at 1065.49. Support: 1050.19, 1043.77, 1024.62. Resistance: 1070.39, 1096.82, 1121.44 50% weekly.
