Thursday turned out another day for the bears and left the broader markets red. Volume split on the NYSE and Nasdaq today, the NYSE outpaced yesterday and Nasdaq came in slightly lower. Remember the Nasdaq doesn’t have financial stocks, so that is likely the difference today. Futures all came in with higher volume than we had on Wednesday for distribution days again today. The TRIN closed in the bears territory at 1.83 and the VIX up +1.51 at 25.88. Gold closed down $16.30 at $998.30 and oil down $3.04 at $65.93 a barrel.
Thursday started mixed with the Nasdaq gapping up and the rest of the indexes opening flat. That threw off the early movement but the end result was still a drop throughout the day. Heavy market breadth showed up in the first 40 minutes and just never let up. Daily charts did take a turn, all closing under yesterdays range and that confirms the reversal bars we were looking at yesterday. The Nasdaq’s lighter volume isn’t a true confirmation because you need lower closes and volume to confirm reversals. SPX and Dow of course did get that confirmation, but until we drop through 38.2% support that needs to be walked around lightly. Pullback mentality is still here for us until we start to break supports on the uptrend. Stochastics turned down, CCI is just over 0 line, MACD is tilting down and the RSI is falling on the daily charts for each index.
By days end the bears were pausing and letting the market hold for a small bounce. Which left all the indexes and key sectors to close off the lows, but still all in the lower 30% of the days range. 65 minute charts closed with the market trying to bounce and giving some weak action. I am looking for a gap down in the morning, if we don’t get that the Friday small range dip buyers are likely to come in. However, if we do get the gap down, look for a bounce to come in for a retest into Thursday’s closing range. Early data Friday will come in for some volatility, but I think we are in for a narrow range day to digest the past two days of selling.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 9:55 Revised Univ Of Michigan, 9:55 Univ Of Mich Consumer Sentiment, 10:00 New Home Sales, G20 meeting continues. Monday nothing due out. Tuesday pre market 9:00 S&P/CS Composite 20 HPI, 10:00 CB Consumer Confidence. Wednesday 8:15 ADP NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Final GDP, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 10:30 FOMC Member Lockhart speaks, 12:30 FOMC Member Kohn Speaks. Thursday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Construction Spending m/m, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, 10:30 Natural Gas, All day vehicle sales. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 Factory Orders.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market KBH and nothing after the bell. Monday nothing of interest. Tuesday pre market WAG and after the bell DRI, JBL, NKE. Wednesday pre market PBG and after the bell LWSN, XRTX. Thursday pre market STZ, TSCM and after the bell ACN, MU, SMSC. Friday nothing of interest.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Friday’s pivot 1709.50, weekly pivot 1705.50. Support: 1693.50, 1688 38.2%, 1671.50, 1668. Resistance: 1717.75, 1724.75, 1731.50, 1741
