Thursday closed the day with a modest win, erasing yesterday’s losses but not gaining any real ground after Tuesday’s drop. Volume was mixed across the board with the NYSE lower, Nasdaq higher and futures had the ES and NQ lower and TF higher. The TRIN closed at .62 and the VIX at 27.10. Gold rallied again today closing up $19.50 at $998 and oil down 13 cents to $67.92 a barrel.
Wednesday and Thursday left the market in a very narrow range, that is normal leading into a long weekend, but also after a big move like the market saw on Tuesday’s drop. Digesting the move is needed to then setup for the next move, which is likely to be after Labor Day. Friday has data leading into the day, but nothing after that 8:30 release. Which will leave us with movement in the first 60-90 minutes and probably chop to follow. Thursday did the same thing, moved early and then nothing until the final 30 minutes. This will pass and improve after the holiday most likely. The indexes still set over 38.2% supports and not far off the 50dma’s. The 38.2% support on the leg up off the July 8ths lows are: Dow 9034.47, COMPX 1932.49, 1563.67 NDX, and SPX 974.47. The 50dma’s are also nearing as we pullback and the 8/17 swing lows.
Bracketing the last two days range is where to look for a break to find our next move. However, don’t expect to see a lot of continuation until after Labor Day and then we will see something to sink our teeth in. Friday’s ahead of a holiday are rarely great trading days, there will be something but it is not a time to load the boat and it is not a time to overtrade or over think what is happening. You can become frustrated or you can just acknowledge the fact it is not a day to do a lot unless we love it. Next week things will start to get back to normal and the market will setup plenty, WAIT for it!
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings. Monday US Markets are closed for holiday, Tuesday 3:00 Consumer Credit, Wednesday 8:00 FOMC Member Evans Speaks, 2:00 Beige Book, Thursday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Nat Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories, 12:30 FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks, Friday 8:30 Import Prices, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: . Friday pre market HRB and nothing after the bell.
SPX (S&P 500) closed +8.49 at 1003.24. Support: 991.55, 974.47 38.2%, 954.39. Resistance: 1010.12, 1021.33, 1029.31, 1039.47.
INDU (Dow) closed +63.94 at 9344.61. Support: 9226.45, 9116.52, 9034.47 38.2%. Resistance: 9402.84, 9489.66, 9551.47.
SOX
