Friday left the day green across the broader markets with light volume. The week closed with a gain, although coming into Friday we were pretty even on the week and the last two hours advance marked the gains on the week. The TRIN closed at .79 bullish on the day and left the week with the lowest average weekly TRIN on the year at .73. The VIX closed at 16.14 about 5% below the 10dma. Gold closed up $9.10 to $1162 and oil down 54 cents to $84.85 a barrel.
The Dow has 11132.26 and onto 11245.90 for key resistance overhead after hitting 11000 on Friday and closing just below that key psychological area on the index. Nasdaq composite has 2519.97 resistance to watch for overhead and 2383.77 and onto 2318.91 support. The Nas 100 closed just over 1982.68 a very key spot off the October 2007 highs to the March 2009 lows. Holding over that level coming into Monday would let the NDX look for 2239.23 resistance overhead. NDX support 1943.97 and onto 1880.91 38.2% areas should be watched for. The SPX has 1228.74 61.8% resistance and 1165.77 onto 1137.30 38.2% supports to watch for. Each of the daily charts are into the upper Bollinger and each RSI is 72-74 on the COMPX, NDX, SPX with only the Dow under 70 at 69.43. Those over 70 readings over 70 are concern for being overbought we but can continue onto 80 with little pause. With each index at new highs on the year the bulls still have hold of the action.
The week ahead will have a lot of data and earnings season gets underway. After the strength in the final hours Friday and leadership from hardware and sox we can look for this lift to continue. The COMPX is so close to 2500, NDX knocks at 2000, SPX 1200 and Dow 11000 the market will want that look at those round key psychological numbers. Now the focus points us into earnings and will it be a sell the news or fuel the fire move to come. A good size gap will likely bring in a lot of volume and could help to see a pullback develop with exhaustion. With no weekly pivot tested last week and the prior three weeks did we can look for those levels on futures early in the week. The market has been very consistent with 3 or 4 weeks hitting the pivot and missing a week throughout 2010. That would pull us in to get that test this week and should be on watch.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 2:00 Federal Budget Balance. Tuesday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Import Prices, 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, 10:45 FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks. Wednesday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 CPI, 9:30 FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks, 10:00 Fed Bernanke Testifies, 10:00 Business Inventories, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Beige Book. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 12:15 FOMC Member Bullard Speaks, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index, tentative Treasury Currency Report. Friday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Housing Starts, 9:55 Prelim UofM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UofM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday nothing pre market and after the bell AA. Tuesday pre market FAST, INFY and after the bell CSX, INTC, LLTC, TLB. Wednesday pre market ASML, JPM, PGR and after the bell JBHT, YUM. Thursday pre market SCHW, FCS, BTU, PPG, TITN and after the bell AMD, AMLN, BIIB, CBK, GOOG, ISRG, PLCM. Friday pre market BAC, GE, MAT and after the bell IEX.
NDX (Nasdaq 100) closed +13.70 at 1994.43. Support: 1975.19, 1954.78, 1886.91 38.2% Resistance: 2006.11, 2011.57, 2033.35, 2048.62, 2239.23 Oct highs.
